AST perfect target for PUTs, but look for future Calls

ASTS will have some bumps this week due to a flawed analysis from Scotiabank:

Good target for near term PUTs prior to their next satellite launch.

Good target for 30 to 60 DTE Calls close to ITM due to future analyst ratings to improve their price.

What I see

They forgot that AST is not established but in a startup phase.

Starlink does not offer true 5g cell service to T-Mobile customers, but does offer limited texting, and some data for apps.

ASTS is building a true 5g cell network from space to allow 5g coverage in remote areas on earth.

Everyone knows they are not yet making revenue, the best analysts know this.

What investors are basing stock price on is future earnings based on their business model.

Bank of America latest analysis by Michael J. Funk is an $85 price target for near term (Nov 2025).

This is based on AST latest information of launching BB1 and 2 December and January.

AST has reserved launches to place up to 75 satellites this year, Space X can carry 3, Blue Origin can carry 6 to 8.

AST states they are targeting 45 to 60 for 2026.

AST has global aspirations, not just for T-Mobile as their competitor has done.

–Cellphone/5G broadband demand in US non developed areas, India, Europe non developed areas, Asian Islands projected 1bil customers, $3 bil revenue projected by 2029.

–SDA contract with the government $43 mil, smart move since $1 tril budget by 2030 expected. Government needing someone like ASTS with the best technology in the industry delivering high end comms technology capable of serving 5g real time service for communication, control, surveillance, backup comms, etc…

–Clear that ASTS government contract revenue will increase greatly by 2030, possible to 10bil for comms services. National Security projects, Golden Dome defense for starters.

Analysis

–FPF uses the P/S ratio to come up with a future price.

–P/S of 20, assuming revenue of 3.56bil in 2029, price target $287.

–What is more is that the growth rate will not be linear, but will explode in 2027

–2026 will be closer to a linear growth year, probably 25% increase.

November 2025 AST has stated cost reduction of building satellites. This is due to improved manufacturing of economies of scale and reduced engineering design cost from ~100m to 22mil.

AST is following its business plan and is still in early stages.

They have a good cash balance, continue to build satellites, and they are on schedule for launching them.

They have multiple cell phone companies that are investors and business partners, Verizon, AT&T, Vodafone, Rakuten, huge interest from multiple countries and continents, Saudi Arabia, India, Africa.

key differences:

–ASTS will act as any cell tower providing service to it's operators as a wholesaler, receiving revenue from Verizon or Vodafone as any cell tower would when it acts as an operator for them. The cell customer will not notice any difference as they roam the countryside.

–Starlink will act as a roaming add on that will charge the carrier's customer a separate fee. The T-Mobile customer will be billed an extra charge who pays Starlink for usage as an add on fee.

–ASTS offers video phone calls from areas on the earth where cell phone towers are not possible. This is due to their proprietary ASIC chip and satellite design that gives them a technological edge over competitors. The chip was designed by the #1 chip designer Cadence, and manufactured by the #1 semiconductor manufacturer TSMC (they make iphone processors in case you were unaware). This will allow ASTS to have a constellation of about 45-60 satellites where the competitor has calculated needing > 700 to match to offer high speed internet.

–starlink is rapidly crashing/replacing satellites to improve their service because their technology is behind. Their satellites do not have the same bandwidth.

–ASTS to offer 5g service to the lowest cost cell phone.

–Starlink can achieve text messaging to most phones built within the last 4 years, but has not released voice without the customer upgrading to compatible phones.