Okay, so I graduated with a comp sci degree about a year ago and have not gotten a job. My sister is a data analyst who makes about $120k. Her whole team is getting fired (yahoo) and she has been saying how much trouble she's having in trying to get a senior data analyst job. She is super into her career and even hires interview coaches to help.
She says that everyone is struggling to find tech jobs. When I look at online forums(like reddit) in regards to IT, Software, data, etc jobs… it seems that the whole market is oversaturated and only senior-level jobs are being sought out for. Juniors are flat out not getting hired. Now, as the tech market is clearly not doing well, I've talked to some of my close friends that all have white collar jobs in unrelated fields… I get the gist that nobody is having an easy time in the white collar industry. That white-collar is oversaturated…
I'm guessing AI are stealing these jobs by increasing productivity from mid-level and senior-level positions.
So if a bunch of people are losing high paying careers and being forces into undesirable field… wouldn't this negatively affect the economy and subsequently the stock market? I can see how in the short-term that earnings reports would be positive by less capital expenditures(employee expenses), but wouldn't this be very temporary and probably extremely bearish longterm?
Are these major ceo's even aware or care that they can be potentially nuking the economy so that they have extremely positive earnings reports? Can the average salary of the common man go down and the stock market still keep going up? Essentially the upper-middle class to middle class would dwindle into a smaller subsection of the US population.
Btw my ASTS position is worth $500k w/ cost basis at $6.50 and I'm only working a part time job right now(my whole life actually). I went all-in on this company after doing a ton of research in 2021. I've honestly never had money like this in my life and I think it could keep going up if the project is executed as expected. The margins this company can potentially have with an enormous TAM made me see how this could be a $100-200B mkt cap company one day. Through partnerships with over 50 MNOs, they have 3billion current subscribers. This is not counting the people that live in remote areas and don't even own cell phones… the potential is enormous.
That said, I want to move out of my parents(I'm 31M) and am scared a recession will kill my gains. I want to hold, but I feel like the uncertainty around AI and the economy is making me want to pull out like $200k and get an apartment while I search for a full-time job. I can probably get a job as low voltage electrician, as I have a lot of experience(+10 yrs), but I have 3 degrees. In Philosophy, History, and Comp-Sci from a T-50 public university in the country. I feel as if I deserve a decent office gig, but seemingly nobody wants me. I used to even get denied data entry jobs that I mass applied to. Do you literally have to know someone to get a office job nowadays??
What're your thoughts on AI, the economy, job market and their relationship with the stock market. Thanks…
Job market in relation to the stock market and economy
byu/KnightofAmethyst2 instocks
Posted by KnightofAmethyst2
6 Comments
I ain’t reading all that, what’s the tldr
Look up technological singularity.
You can retire with that kinda money if you don’t risk it on low-conviction plays. Wanting a desk job that chases company profits for the sake of a paycheck, when you may not need it, doesn’t make sense to me. How do you want to impact the world? And how do you want to live in the world? Depending on those answers, you could retire now off of passive income (and still work on something meaningful but not as an obligation arising from the necessity of employment).
Yeah, sell everything. Get the cash. Its so valuable. My grandma keeps 1 mil under the mattress.
The stock market is a largely a function of M2 money supply. If you adjust for M2, the stock market is mostly flat since 1970s to now. Same is true of gold, so if you plot M2, gold, and S&P 500 these are largely in line with S&P 500 being slightly ahead due to dividend yield.
Can the stock market keep going up? Well, M2 money supply keeps going up, so sure. That’s why whenever interest rates are slashed the market rallies, because low interest rates means M2 is going to fly high.
Can jobs suck while that happens? Sure, jobs will suck if companies don’t see RoI on headcount. Mag 7 are using a strategy of avoiding mass layoffs by instead cutting down on future hiring. Their hiring plans for the next 5 years have been slashed heavily to do an effective mass layoff without actually doing a mass layoff of existing employees.
Is AI to blame? Yeah, the shareholder reports often cite the AI strategy for the business, and very often it’s clearly stated that AI will benefit shareholders by allowing for future hiring to be slashed. Mass layoffs is very politically incorrect and very 2009. No politician wants to see large-scale layoffs in their home state, so good little CEOs who want their govt contracts to keep coming will slash hiring rather than kick off layoffs.
LLMs are great at entry-level code. So companies still need senior coders, and of course anyone on the AI research side. But junior coders? Data analysts? Large ops teams that just shunt csv data from one place to another and transform some columns and cell formats? Yeah, those jobs are mostly gone. One senior engineer with an LLM can replace a project lead with 5 entry-level data analysts. Some day the LLM can take the senior engineer job as well, but not any time soon.
A recession requires GDP “real growth rate” to contract for 2 quarters in a row. The GDP “real growth rate” is adjusted by CPI, but CPI is notoriously far below M2 inflation. So the “real growth rate” will continue ticking positive thanks to a low CPI of 3% despite an M2 inflation of 8%. As such, we won’t be in a recession so long as GDP keeps growing faster than CPI. Which should be easy considering 8% extra M2 money supply is being injected into the system every year. It’d be really embarrassing if we can’t even grow 3% after all that sugar.
When top billionaires all together collectively are very keen and massively pouring millions of dollars into the developing baby called AI. What do you think they have assembled for? Do you think they are AVENGERS? to save the world from outside threats? They are opposite of avengers, growing threat homegrown.
You have the answer here without explanation.