Loads of third party sources I find say that 2025 real GDP growth in the US was around 2%. Here is an example from Fitch Ratings; US Growth Forecasts Revised Up After Delayed GDP Release
Fitch are forecasting 2026 real GDP growth at 2.0% and this was only made two days ago
"GDP is now estimated to have expanded by 2.1% in 2025 compared to a forecast of 1.8% in Fitch’s December 2025 Global Economic Outlook (GEO). We now forecast growth of 2.0% in 2026"
But when I look at the US BEA data it is saying the run rate for Q3 was 4.3% Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and the FedNOW and other sources are now saying 4-5%+ real GDP run rate growth for Q4 2025!
Yet loads of forecasters have US real GDP growth in 2025 at 2% (including large investment banks) and also 2% for 2026. What am I missing? Why is there such a big gap?
Why is there such a disparity between US real GDP forecasts I see at places like Fitch and the 4%+ from the BEA?
byu/Throwaway19a2 inAskEconomics
Posted by Throwaway19a2