The simplest binary play of the year. NOAA exploration license granted, unlock value = 700% increase/$56~ price. The minerals are there, the technology is there, just waiting for the "license to drill."
LEAPS are decent $5-$7 strike go for around $200-$400 premium cost. Either lose a bit or 700% that's it. Current share price $7-$8 range.
With the way Trumps is going, he will most likely bypass the UN's ISA authority and speed up TMC's ability to mine for "national security" rare earth metals.
Thoughts?
Disclosure: Own 200 shares + 2 leaps, just a small but potentially fun play for me.
Posted by MelvinDeezNuts
12 Comments
This doesn’t look like an AI DD, so maybe calls?
This stock made me a millionaire.
What’s your calculation for a 700% increase…?
Based off their earnings call in the summer, they measured their value (if approved) around $21/share. So a 200% gain. Not peanuts, but very different from $56.
Been in $tmc and $tmcww for like 1.5 years. Holding til at least $20 or $0. This guys correct about it being a great binary play. The 700% is baseless though. Based on the NPV of their claims it’d trade more in like $25-30 range if they get their license. Probably trade a under that. But it’s also a new technology, new market, hype with critical minerals and national security. Also if prices of manganese, nickel, copper, and cobalt rise that changes the valuation of their claims. So it might trade higher. Company has ties to Trump, Musk, and big time oil execs. CEO was in DC a lot a few months ago but things have been quiet lately. Also potential to be one of the next companies the U.S. takes a stake in.
Absolute trash stock.
Firstly this was a $10 at IPO and without exaggeration EVERY SINGLE EARLY INVESTOR sold the moment it went public. The only people bag holding were idiot retail investors and the board who were not allowed to sell.
It’s spent the majorly of the last 5 years as a literal penny stock being given multiple delisting warnings while the CEO and board did ever more desperate things to pump the stock over $1 (lol). Look at the 5 year chart for this stock.
The only reason it’s riding above a penny stock now is only because of vibes about Trump mentioning a vague thing about being in to deep sea mining. That’s it.
If anything the possibility of DSM has become harder and more limitations get out in place but the biggest problem TMC has (which they really don’t want to tell you about) is that after all the bullshit and cgi videos and press releases…..
It’s not economically viable. The math doesn’t math.
It’s too expensive to collect, refine and transport to ever be worth the relatively small amounts of materials you get.
They would also need a fleet of many hundreds of ships all mining 24/7 (impossible due to weather restrictions) to take any kind of market share.
Finally with costs for recycling these metals dramatically getting more cost effective there’s less and less argument for TMC’s already weak proposition. Everything that TMC wants to mine is infinitely recyclable, including nickel, which according to TMC’s own analysis, makes up 85% of what they would collect. Nickel prices are in a slump too and that’s only going to get worse.
Finally, anyone considering buying in to this, just look up the scam that was Nautus Minerals, which burned through $650m of investors money and never mined a single thing.
And yet it’s literally the same guys (Barron was founder of both NM and TMC) and he cashed out $30m in stock shortly before NM collapsed.
Is it even the most surefire play in that industry with $MP being partnered with the Dept of War and the increased funding proposed? It feels like the implementation of the price floor on MP and their direct ties to national security make it the company most likely to directly benefit the most but who knows?
Got in on TMC at around $4, always thought it was under valued.
Nah you better be wiling to tie your capital up for years with this one. Nowhere close to commercialized. So much execution risk. More power to you but not for me.
Edit: Watch every time this shit pumps. Insiders sell. Like clockwork. If you want to trade it based on vibes, go for it. But major long term risk here.
Honestly, it was one of my biggest gainers in 2025. Already sold off some to get my initial investment back, now playing with house money w/2000 shares.
A guy at work told me about this and every time Trump talks about it, it gains a bit. I own 11 shares. Just didn’t want my work buds laughing at me if it ever did do something. FOMO I guess.
I’ve been in TMC for 2 years and have 10,000 shares. While I agree with you it is a binary play, I am also fully confident the NOAA permit is guaranteed. Because of that I don’t think getting the permits will actually move it too much. I could see a 50% jump that won’t last long and will creep downward until production starts. Basically, the permits are already priced in.
I do think when production starts, a price of $50-60 a share is possible
Their CEO is a scammer.