Russell 2000 beat the S&P again yesterday (-0.1% vs -0.19%). That's 8 straight days of outperformance – hasn't happened since January 2019.

    A few things driving this:

    1. Valuation gap is massive. S&P 600 small caps trade at ~15.6x forward earnings vs S&P 500 at ~22.6x. That's a 31% discount.
    2. Rate cut expectations. Small caps got crushed by high rates (more debt-sensitive). Fed easing helps them disproportionately.
    3. Rotation out of mega-caps. The "Magnificent 7" trade is getting crowded. Money is finally flowing downstream.

      For context, large caps have outperformed small caps for 5 straight years (2020-2025). The last time that happened was 1994-1998 – which was followed by 6 straight years of small cap outperformance (1999-2004).

      Not saying history repeats, but the setup is interesting.

      The catch: Small caps are riskier. Less liquidity, weaker balance sheets, more volatility. The Russell 2000 has ~40% of companies that aren't profitable. You can't just buy blindly.

      If you're looking at small caps, focus on profitability, debt levels, and revenue growth. The junk rallies first in a rotation, but quality wins over time.

    Small caps just extended their outperformance streak to 8 days vs S&P 500 – longest run since 2019
    byu/thinkneo instocks



    Posted by thinkneo

    1 Comment

    1. SameCategory546 on

      good post. I actually like some cyclical companies with high debt. If you have a company with a debt problem where lowering rates almost instantly fixes their balance sheet and it’s a well run business that has just suffered from market conditions, it’s a buy

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