Week Recap: Unrest in Iran, inflation and factory index data, and Trump’s attacks on the Fed. Rate cut hopes fade. The S&P 500 dropped 0.38% for a week. Jan. 12, 2026 – Jan. 16, 2026

First of all, I don't want to be misunderstood. This heat map is weekly that it visualized via closing prices from January 9 to January 16.

It was a busy week. Unrest in Iran boosted precious metals. Inflation and factory index reports weakened rate cut hopes. Trump continues to push for lower rate and attacked the Fed.

📊 Here are the S&P 500's week-by-week results for the last 4 week,

December 19 close at 6,834.78 – December 26 close at 6,929.94 🟢 (1.40%)

December 26 close at 6,929.94 – January 2 close at 6,858.47 🔴 (-1.03%)

January 2 close at 6,858.47 – January 9 close at 6,966.28 🟢 (1.57%)

January 9 close at 6,966.28 – January 16 close at 6,940.01 🔴 (-0.38%)

🔸 Monday: The week began with Trump attacking the Fed over the renovation of Washington Headquarters. Also, he is pushing a 1-year and 10% cap on credit card interest rates. Meanwhile, Iran has an unrest. Overall, the stock market opened lower. Gold and silver reached new all-time highs. During the session, NYT reported Trump administration is nearing a trade deal with Taiwan to reduce tariffs to 15%. Semiconductor stocks rose. The stock market recovered and closed higher. 🟢

🔸 Tuesday: Before the session, December CPI inflation was released. Both normal and core CPI were in line with previous month. Yearly came at 2.7% and monthly at 0.3%. There was no surprises. The stock market opened flat. Trump said Fed should lower rates on good news. The stock market closed lower due to banking sector. 🔴

🔸 Wednesday: PPI inflation was released. Both monthly and yearly rose compare to previous month. PPI reached the highest level since June, but there was 2 month data gap in September and October due to government shutdown. Iran reportedly broke diplomatic contact with the U.S. The stock market opened lower. Gold and silver rose amid Iran concerns. The stock market closed lower as tech selloffs. Nasdaq dropped 1%. 🔴

🔸 Thursday: Continuing Jobless Claims fell to 1.883M from last week at 1.914M. NY and Philly Fed factory indexes beat the expectations and economic growth continues. On the negative side, Fed can keep rate steady. The market is certain that Fed will hold rate in January. For the next month, CME FedWatch tool is showing 20% possibility of 25 point rate cut. It dropped from 25% last week. Despite this, the stock market opened higher and rebounded. The U.S. and Taiwan reached a deal lowering tariffs to 15%. During the session, tech momentum weakened, but the stock market still closed higher. 🟢

🔸 Friday: Japan's 10-Year Yield continues to rise and hitting 2.19% for first time since 1997. The stock market opened higher. It was a quiet session, but the stock market closed lower. 🔴

There were many parts in this week and volatility is a bit higher. PPI inflation and factory indexes moved higher. Rate cut expectations are decreasing and this could negative impact on the market. On the other hand, upcoming earnings could support especially in the AI sector. Netflix will release on Tuesday and will be first company among the magnificent sevens. Also, we will hear the next Fed chair. Bessent said he expects Trump's decision before Davos or upon return. This means we may hear in January.

What do you think? What do you think? How was your week?

❓ Note: Many people have asked where screenshots come from in my previous posts. I'm using Stock+ on iPhone and iPad. You can find it on the App Store. If you're using Android, I'm now sure if it's available, but you can try searching "Stock Map" or "Heat Map".