I like how people *this cycle* are now using “percentage drawdowns from the peak” as the way to try and predict the bottoms.
In previous cycles, it was “the last cycle’s ATH is this cycle’s bottom.”
Gotta cope as best as you can, I guess.
Charizard3535 on
Bit dangerous to use the past to predict the future. First two were during a massive equity bull run. Third was right after an absurdly high money printing cycle and lower than inflation interest rates.
etherd0t on
Nah, $60k is the bottom of this crash… just an informed guess, based on multiple fibs setups;
We’re at $63 now, just for the record.
So, $65k on retrace as a re-entry/reference line for consolidation, etc.
jeremiahcp on
As a statistician, I am confused by the statement “math, not a prediction.” In this context, they are the same fucking thing. You have data points (very few data points). You fit a model to those data points (a very, very simple model). That is a fucking prediction.
You have bad math. Fuck your prediction.
Here is what you should be doing: FUCK YEAH, CRASH BTC. FUCKING CRASH.
I can actually do time-series predictive modeling based on past data. I have that training, but I don’t do it, because it’s a waste of time and unreliable for crypto. Will it go back up in four years? Yes, very likely. Will it outperform the traditional market? Yes, likely. Will it beat tech stocks? Less clear, AI is driving that shit like crazy.
Conclusion: BUY THE FUCKING DIP.
ToDaMoonShibe on
we should get there in 2 weeks according to weekly chart
jermcnama on
I wouldn’t anticipate a bottom anytime soon based on the psychology of the cycle. It’s been consistent over 11 years.
Low Jan 2015 → ATH Dec 2017: 1,067 days
ATH Dec 2017 → Cycle low Dec 2018: 363 days
Cycle low Dec 2018 → ATH Nov 2021: 1,061 days
ATH Nov 2021 → Cycle low Nov 2022: 376 days
Cycle low Nov 2022 → ATH Oct 6, 2025: 1,050 days
ATH Oct 6, 2025 → ???
See you in October
deadacclaim on
What if we get a recession? -90% ?
origamipaperclippp on
So many bots replying to this trying to make it seem like the whole market isn’t being liquidated to zero as we speak.
Brunosaurs4 on
Well, its certainly going down fast
amoral_ponder on
But literally nothing happened so far in the real world. Imagine something actually happens LOL..
Punchmeinmyface25 on
lol
Punchmeinmyface25 on
Tulip dreams
Victoria4DX on
Everyone is expecting buttcorn to dump to oblivion like it has in the past before recovering. Everyone is chomping at the bit to experience the schadenfreude of Saylor getting liquidated. TradFi-only cucks are euphoric right now.
The bottom is in.
Buydipstothemoon on
Can I borrow that crystall ball from you for the next cycle?
iomyorotuhc on
Remember ftx crash and everyone thought it was done? Yeah I remember, I’m buying
BoggsMill on
I’ve been calling 38k since like 2 months ago.
qwilla_ on
Siiiiiiiiick hell yeah
Slight-Regular-3711 on
Hard to even start thinking about a bottom until after MSTR starts unloading.
19 Comments
Lmao
I like how people *this cycle* are now using “percentage drawdowns from the peak” as the way to try and predict the bottoms.
In previous cycles, it was “the last cycle’s ATH is this cycle’s bottom.”
Gotta cope as best as you can, I guess.
Bit dangerous to use the past to predict the future. First two were during a massive equity bull run. Third was right after an absurdly high money printing cycle and lower than inflation interest rates.
Nah, $60k is the bottom of this crash… just an informed guess, based on multiple fibs setups;
We’re at $63 now, just for the record.
So, $65k on retrace as a re-entry/reference line for consolidation, etc.
As a statistician, I am confused by the statement “math, not a prediction.” In this context, they are the same fucking thing. You have data points (very few data points). You fit a model to those data points (a very, very simple model). That is a fucking prediction.
You have bad math. Fuck your prediction.
Here is what you should be doing: FUCK YEAH, CRASH BTC. FUCKING CRASH.
I can actually do time-series predictive modeling based on past data. I have that training, but I don’t do it, because it’s a waste of time and unreliable for crypto. Will it go back up in four years? Yes, very likely. Will it outperform the traditional market? Yes, likely. Will it beat tech stocks? Less clear, AI is driving that shit like crazy.
Conclusion: BUY THE FUCKING DIP.
we should get there in 2 weeks according to weekly chart
I wouldn’t anticipate a bottom anytime soon based on the psychology of the cycle. It’s been consistent over 11 years.
Low Jan 2015 → ATH Dec 2017: 1,067 days
ATH Dec 2017 → Cycle low Dec 2018: 363 days
Cycle low Dec 2018 → ATH Nov 2021: 1,061 days
ATH Nov 2021 → Cycle low Nov 2022: 376 days
Cycle low Nov 2022 → ATH Oct 6, 2025: 1,050 days
ATH Oct 6, 2025 → ???
See you in October
What if we get a recession? -90% ?
So many bots replying to this trying to make it seem like the whole market isn’t being liquidated to zero as we speak.
Well, its certainly going down fast
But literally nothing happened so far in the real world. Imagine something actually happens LOL..
lol
Tulip dreams
Everyone is expecting buttcorn to dump to oblivion like it has in the past before recovering. Everyone is chomping at the bit to experience the schadenfreude of Saylor getting liquidated. TradFi-only cucks are euphoric right now.
The bottom is in.
Can I borrow that crystall ball from you for the next cycle?
Remember ftx crash and everyone thought it was done? Yeah I remember, I’m buying
I’ve been calling 38k since like 2 months ago.
Siiiiiiiiick hell yeah
Hard to even start thinking about a bottom until after MSTR starts unloading.