Will Trump’s bubble burst with crypto?

    Bitcoin has halved in value since October, and this is not a routine market correction. It is a crash.

    In this video, I explain why crypto has no underlying value, why the collapse still has further to go, and why banks that lent money so people could speculate on Bitcoin are now exposed.

    I also look at the growing fragility in stock markets and tech valuations, including AI, and explain why this could become a systemic crisis that makes 2008 look mild by comparison.

    Trump promised that crypto and markets would make his supporters rich. If those bubbles burst, the political consequences could be just as severe as the financial ones.

    This is not speculation. The evidence is now visible in the markets, and yesterday’s volatility just proves it.

    Take a look at our poll below: https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxuSwr-IIu4Ct0zmGMkCuBpvsZ8NmgUuQ1

    00:00 Crypto crash begins – Bitcoin price collapse
    00:38 Why this is not a correction but a crash
    01:18 Bitcoin has no intrinsic value
    02:05 Why crypto could fall much further
    02:48 AI stocks and the next market rout
    03:36 Banks, leverage and bailout risks
    04:28 Trump, markets and the bursting bubble
    05:22 Political and financial consequences ahead
    06:00 A reckoning is coming – are we prepared?

    TRANSCRIPT
    A transcript for this video is available at: https://www.taxresearch.org.uk

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    ABOUT RICHARD MURPHY
    Richard Murphy is Emeritus Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School. He is director of Tax Research LLP and the author of the Funding the Future blog. His best-known book is ‘The Joy of Tax’.

    This video was edited by Thomas Murphy.

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    36 Comments

    1. Do you think the dollar has intrinsic value? Fiat is literally artificial.

      Bitcoin’s value isn’t in being a gadget or creating cash flow—it’s permissionless, final settlement with fixed issuance and no counterparty risk. Wrong framework, wrong conclusion.

    2. By passing the GENIUS Act (and similar state-level initiatives like the Wyoming Stablecoin Act), the state is not "freeing" the market; it is colonising it. From a sovereign fiat lens, this isn't a "win" for decentralisation—it is a sophisticated "on-boarding" of private technology into state control.

      The GENIUS Act: In July 2025, President Trump signed the GENIUS Act, creating a federal regulatory framework for dollar-backed stablecoins. This is state issue there for a political ruse.

      Pro-Crypto" political narrative: the Sovereignty Paradox.

      The Stablecoin "Trojan Horse"

      The GENIUS Act regulates dollar-backed stablecoins. For a stablecoin to be "dollar-backed," the issuer (like Tether or Circle) must hold US Treasuries.

      The Sovereign Win: This turns private crypto companies into the largest buyers of US government debt.

      The Ruse: While it looks like the government is supporting "crypto," they are actually using the crypto market to subsidise the sovereign fiat system. It forces the private sector to provide the liquidity needed for the state to perform Overt Monetary Financing (OMF).

      Regulatory Capture as "Freedom"

      By creating a "federal regulatory framework," the state gains the power to decide who can and cannot play.

      The Filter: Under the GENIUS Act, only "compliant" stablecoins are allowed. This effectively bans the truly decentralised, algorithmic, or non-KYC stablecoins that the original crypto movement envisioned.

      The State Hook: If the state controls the "rails" (the regulated stablecoin), they don't need a CBDC. They have already achieved the same goal: Total surveillance and control over the digital dollar.

      The "MAGA" Reserve vs. Central Control
      The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is often framed as a way to "Make America Great Again" by beating China. However, from a sovereign lens:

      State-Owned BTC: If the US government owns 1 million+ BTC, they become the "Whale of Whales." They can use that stash to manipulate the market or prevent other nations from using Bitcoin to bypass the dollar.

      The Illusion of Choice: The "choice" offered is between a State CBDC (which Trump opposes) and a State-Regulated Private Stablecoin (which he supports). In reality, both require the user to stay within the sovereign legal framework.

      "Smart money" understands the GENIUS Act is a political bridge. It allows the state to absorb the benefits of blockchain (speed, 24/7 markets, global reach) without giving up the Sovereign Advantage (the power to make laws and control the money supply).

      When it's time to pull the plug it will be under state controls.

      The Sovereign Lens Conclusion: The GENIUS Act isn't about "Bitcoin." It’s about Digital Dollar Hegemony. It uses the "Pro-Crypto" branding to build a system where the private sector does the work, but the state holds the keys.

    3. We can do more than hope. We can starve the Trump-aligned megacorps of our consumer dollars/pounds/euros/yen/yuan/rupies/francs/etc. That is the thrust of Scott Galloway's resist and unsubscribe campaign. The next phase is building parallel (competing) technical infrastructure based on the principles of care equity and mutuality.

    4. Another loser acting like he has knowledge & his gang of people who know even less… Very sad, but by the time you realize it will be too late once again

    5. I watched a video by Veritasium recently. It incidentally explains why investors are so happy to throw money at ventures that are almost bound to fail. Basically, throw enough sh*t at a wall, then enough of it will stick to ensure that return > investment overall. It seems to me that bubbles are hard coded into the system as it stands. I think this is the correct video: https://youtu.be/HBluLfX2F_k

    6. Bitcoin is your blind spot. Value is subjective with everything from gold to art. Bitcoin is no different, but you can not send gold, art, property etc over the Internet.

      Game theory will make Bitcoin the next reserve currency and there is fuck all you can do about it.

    7. The best way to keep your wealth is to spend it. Investment to accumulate value is practically none existent, private sector banks are no longer been intermediaries.
      You can gamble in the same pools as those that use the Buy, Borrow, Die stragety but the if you are a retail investor with limited knowledge when the system tips you will loose everything while smart money walks with the profit.

      New Reality" of February 2026: the destruction of the traditional middle-class wealth-building model. With the removal of private banks as intermediaries and the shift toward Asset-Backed OMF, the traditional "save and compound" strategy has been replaced by a high-velocity spending or gambling economy.

      In this environment, "wealth" is no longer a number in a bank account; it is real-world utility or strategic positioning.

      The Death of the "Passive Investor"
      Historically, retail investors used banks and index funds to capture a "fair share" of economic growth. In the 2026 paradigm:

      Disintermediation: Sovereigns have bypassed commercial banks to issue credit directly (OMF). This means the "interest" or "yield" that used to trickle down to savers is now captured entirely by the state to fund its own asset-backed projects.

      The "Spend to Save" Logic: If the state is actively performing OMF, the purchasing power of idle fiat is under constant pressure. "Smart money" doesn't hold cash; they convert it immediately into productive machinery, land, or energy infrastructure. For the average person, "spending" on durable goods or skills is literally safer than "saving" a currency the state is printing to fund itself.

      The most predatory aspect of the current system. The "Smart Money" (Ultra-High-Net-Worth) uses a specific loop that retail cannot access.

      Buy: They acquire the scarce assets (Real Estate, Bitcoin, Fine Art).

      Borrow: They take low-interest loans against those assets (using them as collateral) to fund their lifestyle.

      Die: They pass the assets to heirs, often resetting the "cost basis" and avoiding capital gains taxes.

      The Retail Trap: Retail traders try to "gamble" in the same pools (crypto, tech stocks) to reach that level of wealth. But without the massive collateral base to "borrow" against, retail is forced to sell during volatility to survive. When the system "tips"—as we saw in the early 2026 market correction—retail sells at the bottom while Smart Money simply waits for the next OMF injection to reflate their collateral value.

      The Sovereign Lens: "Wealth is Action"

      From a sovereign fiat lens, a citizen who "saves" is a liability (stagnant capital). A citizen who spends or gambles is an asset (taxable velocity).

      By making "accumulation" nearly impossible for the average person, the state ensures that the population remains in a state of permanent economic activity.

      If you aren't "Smart Money," your only way to "keep" wealth is to turn it into something the state cannot easily devaluate or tax—tangible, used-value items or private, un-seizable knowledge.

      the "Investment" era for the common man is over. We have entered the "Allocation" era. If you hold the wrong asset when the sovereign "tips" the scale to save its own OMF system, you aren't just losing money—you are being liquidated by design to balance the state's books.

    8. Look are you completely ignorant of the fact that Bitcoin is doing exactly what it always does, and that is fall by 50-70% in value in the 4th year of the 4 year cycle. It's really not difficult to understand that. This will still leave it about 300% higher than it was at the beginning of the 4 year cycle, why are you not reporting that figure? Three years from now you'll be reporting on how Bitcoin has just hit another all time high, I know this because its what the media does every time… You need a better understanding of the subject you are reporting on.

    9. The question is, if crypto and the stock market crashes, should we be bailing out the banks? The reason I ask this is that they continue to use unsafe practices, be it investing in crypto, sub prime mortgages, and many more that bring the worlds economies to the brink of collapse. They never learn as they know governments will bail them out each time. Maybe it's time to let them fail and bring them into public ownership with heavy regulation to prevent future failures.

    10. The "Game Theory" narrative often promoted by Bitcoin advocates—suggesting that nations will be forced into a "race to the bottom" to accumulate Bitcoin as a reserve asset—is frequently criticized for ignoring the structural and systemic risks that make it an unsuitable replacement for sovereign fiat in the eyes of global financial institutions.

      Volatility and Economic Stability

      From a sovereign lens, a reserve asset must preserve value during economic stress.

      As seen in early February 2026, Bitcoin’s sharp decline from 2025 highs of $126,000 to ranges as low as $68,000 demonstrates its unreliability for national balance sheets.

      Budget Optics: For governments like Texas that chose to purchase Bitcoin with public funds, these "unrealised losses" create significant political and fiscal accountability issues that do not exist with traditional seized assets.

      Monetary Policy and Sovereignty

      A Bitcoin-based reserve system would fundamentally weaken the tools used by states to manage their economies.

      Loss of Control
      Widespread crypto adoption reduces a government's ability to manage inflation.

      Sovereignty Erosion: Adopting a non-sovereign asset like Bitcoin can be viewed as an "imperfect substitute" that reduces a nation's own monetary sovereignty, as evidenced by critiques of El Salvador’s policy.

      By adopting Bitcoin as legal tender, President Nayib Bukele aimed to decouple from the US Dollar. However, the Sovereign Lens reveals the opposite happened. Because Bitcoin is a volatile commodity and not a "Unit of Account" (people still price their bread and taxes in USD), the nation became more dependent on the dollar to act as the "volatility sponge."

      The Credit Trap: Downgrades and Dependency

      The Downgrade Logic: Rating agencies (Fitch, Moody’s) view Bitcoin as a "contingent liability." In 2024 and 2025, El Salvador faced repeated warnings that its "crypto-experiment" increased its default risk.

      Borrowing Costs: Because the IMF refused to grant a $1.4 billion loan due to the Bitcoin law, El Salvador was forced to pay much higher interest rates on the private market.

      The Result: To pay for the Bitcoin experiment, the state had to borrow more US Dollars. The "exit" from the dollar actually deepened the "debt" to the dollar.

      Bitcoin as a "Passive" Asset vs. OMF "Active" Asset

      This is the core of the Sovereign Fiat System advantage:

      OMF is Active: If a state performs OMF (printing money for infrastructure), it is creating value through labor and resources. The state is the master of that currency.

      Bitcoin is Passive: A state holding Bitcoin is just a "HODLer." It has no control over the price. If the price drops (as it did in February 2026 to the $61,000–$68,000 range), the nation’s "reserve" evaporates, but its dollar-denominated debts remain exactly the same.

      The "Game Theory" Failure

      The "Game Theory" argument says: "The first nation to buy BTC wins."
      The Sovereign Reality says: "The first nation to buy BTC loses its ability to borrow cheaply from the global system.

      The Final Sovereign Lens

      Bitcoin cannot be a "National Reserve" because a reserve must be counter-cyclical (it needs to go up when the economy goes down). Bitcoin is pro-cyclical (it crashes when global liquidity dries up).

      When a state adopts Bitcoin, it isn't "Making America (or El Salvador) Great Again"—it is outsourcing its monetary soul to a global ticker symbol that it cannot control. The state loses the "God Mode" of law-making because it cannot "legislate" the Bitcoin price back up when the market tips.

    11. Richard – Please read my previous comment below. You need to understand that the point of Bitcoin is to create a currency outside of traditional finance and banking. The banking institutions have control of the worlds finances to the detriment of the every day citizen. Bitcoin allows for direct payment from person to person without the banks. You should find that idea rather liberating when you give it some thought. In addition, since it has a finite supply (unlike traditional currency that is losing value at a rate of 6.7% per annum, due largely to QE money printing – deliberate debasement/inflation), Bitcoin's value actually increases over time, because just like art or gold it has an inherent rarity that makes it tradeable. In the end, like Gold it becomes a safe "store of value" without the problems of hording large amounts of actual gold. You need to open your mind, and go get a better understanding of bull & bear markets, and 4 year cycles. 4 year cycles are not just pertinent to Bitcoin, the early stock market also behaved that way, until the volatility settled down into more of a 5 year cycle…

    12. I am taking the 25% out of my pension pots next week. They are very high at present but I am 100% convinced the reset is imminent. I have been subscribed for a long time and very grateful. Thanks

    13. I do not disagree with any of the content of this video. But, in relation to Bitcoin, the investment fund Blackrock is a major holder and these people are not stupid. So, there must be some 'value' there. I do not hold any crypto- currencies myself but I have read a couple of articles (to see what all of the fuss was about etc.).

    14. I saw so many videos like this in the past especially when it fall from 20k to 10k 😂😂 “it’s back by nothing”
      3 years later 60k 😂😂 for something that’s back by nothing it surely always bounce back and bounce back harder

    15. The crypto market is the pure stock market casino. It's true speculation without any value behind. That's why it can be defalted and inflated as the rich deem fitting. You have billions, you invest a few hundered millions in a crypto currency, see how the hype babies follow, and you sell when you think it has reached peak. Then you wait, until the value has fallen to almost the inital value, then you can invest again, and the hype babies will follow again. This isn't the end of crypto, it's just the end for a few who invested all their savings into this BS….

    16. Just last year analysts were saying Bitcoin is now too big to fail…and then Trump and his crypto tsar arrived giving hope to crypto owners everywhere. Little did they know Trump was going to create a rival.

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