Honest question: is anyone actually profitable on prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi)?

Like most of you, my spot bags are pretty heavy right now. I honestly stopped checking my main portfolio daily because seeing the same -60% from the 2025 highs is just depressing.

Since price action is basically dead (or just bleeding slowly), I’ve been trying to find yield in places that aren't correlated to BTC. I started messing around with prediction markets recently, mostly Polymarket and a bit of Kalshi. The volume is definitely there, but the pricing logic sometimes feels completely broken. You see these massive swings in probability based on a single tweet or just whale manipulation, even when the actual data hasn't changed.

I realized that ""guessing"" the outcome is just gambling, but finding the gap between the actual odds and the market odds is where the edge is.

I’ve been using this browser extension called PolyPredict AI that overlays a ""fair value"" calculation right on the trading screen. It basically scrapes real-time news to check if the current odds are drifting too far from reality. It’s not a magic crystal ball, nothing is but it’s been useful for spotting arbitrage setups where the market is clearly overreacting to FUD or hype.

In a market where everything else just follows Bitcoin off a cliff, finding something that actually moves based on its own fundamentals feels like a relief.

Are you guys touching this stuff to hedge, or just sitting in stables/BTC waiting for the cycle to finally turn back around?