DD & help requested – $AVPT

I may regret asking this question on here… But here goes nothing

DD/Analysis requested for $AVPT

Looking to pressure-test my thesis & get some perspective.

TLDR: AVPT is a mid-cap SaaS focused on data security, governance & backup across Microsoft/Google ecosystems primarily. Been around 20+ years, not a new AI hype stock.

Fundamentals look solid from the outside.
– FY revenue roughly $415M USD, ~25% YoY growth
– ARR $350-400M+, growing
– Gross margins 75% roughly
– Recently turned operating-cash-flow positive
– Net retention ++high
– Big Microsoft-centric base (Microsoft 365, azure, copilot)

BUT price action has been rough:
– Down 40% YoY
– price range $10-$20, now in the $10-11 range
– Recent analyst price target cuts despite strong buy ratings across board
– Insider selling in last 6-8months
– analyst PTs have either been maintained or cut without clear reasons…?

No obvious negative news or major earnings misses. Definitely some share dilution lately from last earnings. Feels more like multiple compression + lack of narrative than fundamentals breaking.

My questions:

1. Has this become a “boring” governance SaaS and not worthy of market hype? Or is it a fundamentally broken business model and suffering?
2. Are margins & growth already near a ceiling?
3. Is this price action just showing signs of dead money until a clearer catalyst (M&A)?

I want to understand whether this is a value opportunity or a trap.

Appreciate any DD, especially from folks familiar with SaaS valuation or Microsoft-adjacent name. TIA!