I know that nobody knows anything, nobody can predict if it goes up down sideways or in circles. fair. but you can still look at what kind of market we’re in.
btc slipped below $65k this week and tagged around $64.3k at the lows after fresh tariff uncertainty hit risk markets again. it’s been mostly stuck chopping in that 60k to 69k box, with people watching 60k like it’s the “dont break this” level. bulls probably need 70k back to make the vibe change.
matt hougan (bitwise) has an analogy i keep coming back to. he compares this phase to a post-IPO stock like facebook in 2012. price chopped under the IPO price for a while not because fundamentals got worse, but because early holders were distributing and bigger money was quietly absorbing.
his take is bitcoin might be in a similar ownership transfer phase now. early coins are still getting sold, but big flows get absorbed easier than past cycles because there’s more institutional plumbing now (etfs, funds, some corporates).
he’s also said the old “1% allocation” framing is kinda dated, and 5% should be more normal for investors. not advice, just his stance.
so yeah… is this boring sideways action actually the part where you want to be buying, or is it just the start of something uglier?
is this when you should actually be buying more?
byu/hodorrny inCryptoMarkets
Posted by hodorrny
4 Comments
I‘m nearly a BTC maxi these days (75% of my portfolio) and my answer is yes. I do keep significant dry powder on the side if it slips another 10-20% from here.
Don’t fall for narrative and only follow your risk management..
Mine is only buy at POI’S, making an intelligent DCA
Making sure that the structure of the market is bullish (macro) and if the price have a macro target..
This alone stops you from buying top and being stressed out if the price down 10-20-50% from here..
Of course market spot.
Yes
Nobody knows. How can you value an asset that has no internal cash flows, other than the terminal one you get the day that you sell it? You’re making the decision based on future demand.