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    I do not think Iran is priced in adequately.

    Everyone seems to think this is going to be like Venezuela – largely ignored. But I believe this one is going to be uncomparably worse.

    First and foremost – Iran is tied much more closely to China and Russia than Venezuela was. We might have to deal with a situation like in Ukraine – USA will try to blitzkrieg their way to the Iranian supreme leader but the government, armed by Russia and China, will just stop them. The war, due to the sheer size of Iran, might be prolonged like Ukraine invasion despite USA's overwhelming military advantage.

    And then there is the retaliation – Iran is too vital for Russia and China to let it slide. And let us not forget they have got the nuclear option – they can and with the help of Chinese technology will close Strait of Hormuz, which is enough to cause some panic on the market.

    Tldr – I YOLOed everything on 14d SPY 660 PUTs.

    I do not think Iran is priced in adequately.
    byu/BetApprehensive8433 inwallstreetbets



    Posted by BetApprehensive8433

    29 Comments

    1. VisualMod on

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    3. Slice-92 on

      You based everything on the fact that the USA will invade Iran like they did with Irak.

      But there is no troops

    5. BatApprehensive9908 on

      Uh, nah, USA is in another league as far as war goes.

      Just buy calls in defense, regard.

    7. PureSpecialistROTMG on

      I don’t see Mango blitzkrieging Iran. He will probably throw a few bombs, claim that he has “won”, and then go for the next target.

    10. Drago_09 on

      I think there’s a higher chance of nothing happening. And even if we invade, there is no way in hell we are going to war before midterms. After midterms all bets are off.

    11. Able_Show_8560 on

      it’s all posturing. US and Iran are gonna do some BS handshake deal, market will moon, and everyone will forget about this by the next week

    12. TooLateQ_Q on

      You know, theres no US ground force near Iran? Theres no plan for full invasion like Ukraine.

      Which doesn’t mean I dont think puts will print.

    13. HoustonHous on

      China is not helping anyone but themselves, and they are definitely not closing the straights of Hormus, because that will impact them more than the US…

      However, Iran can inflict some damage, and drag it for a bit, so your bet is not unreasonable. I would have went longer than 14d.

      All in all I hate bears so I hope you are wrong

    17. xjcln on

      I don’t think anybody is thinking we would invade Iran with an army. At most we are going to bomb them for a bit. You are correct though in that Iran is much more capable compared to Venezuela. If they manage to sink an aircraft carrier or something, at that point mango may not have any choice but to invade

    19. Most_Lingonberry_409 on

      Do you understand that Iran is surrounded on 3 sides by virtually impenetrable mountains? And the other side it is protected by water. There is no chance of a ground invasion, the absolute worst will be aerial bombing. There is a reason why Iran has not suffered the levels of historic colonisation that its neighbours have – it is very very difficult to invade.

    20. TomatoSpecialist6879 on

      With what troops? US only stationed warships there, China is too busy with domestic problems and yapping on internet, Russia is still busy with their 3-day special military operations that have entered its 4th year. It’s nothing but show of force and a defense stocks bull trap

    21. Th1rt13n on

      Just a hint: it’s Iran arming rusia, not the other way around.

      But if they manage to sink a carrier the US will be forced into a land op and will get bogged down in it. I like your trade

    23. Catch_ME on

      Iran has ships strapped with explosives and ready to sink in the Strait of Hormuz. They also laid mines and placed torpedo bays underwater along the coast. 

      There’s also the fact Iran can pull the UAE and Qatar into the conflict by attacking the American refueling bases. 

      Any one of those options exercised could ballon oil prices. I don’t think the media understands this well. 

      “Mission Accomplished”. Calls on ExxonMobil 

    24. PM_ME_UR_SNARES on

      If Iran was priced adequately, people would be talking about how seemingly the entire fucking Air Force has been flying to Greece, Jordan and Israel the past week. I think it’s probably going to happen, I know Air guard people who just got deployed last week and couldn’t say where. ADSB Exchange shows a very curious flightpath story right now. I think Trumpis the boy who cried wolf here and people are going to be shocked when he actually goes through with this enormous soon to be shitshow. I can happily sit this month out of the stock market, so I exited all risky positions.

    25. Cpt_sneakmouse on

      If the U.S is able to circumvent irans air defenses this war will essentially be over in a week or two. Expect something more along the lines of Iraq or Afghanistan than Ukraine. My guess is after Russia pulled the majority of if not all of its s400 set ups out of Iran the u.s will be capable of doing this. Hundreds of billions of dollars buy some pretty big fuck you’s. 

    26. TXtogo on

      I think it’s a show

      They will bomb something obscure and meaningless

      Iran will retaliate with something obscure

      They’ll play nice for a minute and do it again

      Remember we obliterated their nuclear program just a few months ago, totally wiped it out

      It’s all nonsense

    27. Sensitive_Paper2471 on

      I suspect the people of iran might play a bigger role than you think in bringing down the regime

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