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    Market reaction if Iranian leader Khamenei was taken out in a strike and the ‘war’ was essentially over?

    Let’s say the news is true, and he was taken out. Let’s say, hypothetically of course, if there was not much resistance from whoever is left going forward and the ‘war’ was essentially over, would that be a bullish case for the market? History shows the market usually has an initial draw back at the start of wars, however has there ever been a time where it was started and ended so fast? Curious what you guys think.

    I am not trying to start a whole political debate. If the stars aligned and what I typed happened, how do you think the market will react?

    Market reaction if Iranian leader Khamenei was taken out in a strike and the ‘war’ was essentially over?
    byu/Thug_Res_ inwallstreetbets



    Posted by Thug_Res_

    47 Comments

    3. Historical_Bug_6870 on

      oil would probably tank hard but defense stocks might stay elevated for a while since tensions dont just disappear overnight

    5. HandsOnTheBible on

      That is some good copium you got there, thinking that fire bombing a country with the biggest military presence in the Middle East in broad daylight and killing their leader is the end of a war lmao. 

    7. SaggitariusAStar on

      I think that initially at least, markets will react positively, since I don’t think the death of their leader was expected so much, so not priced in. Will his death lead to basically a weekend war? If yes, then markets go up.

    10. morbie5 on

      If it is indeed a short war then the market will rally like jpow injecting meth into the printing press (it will go up like crazy)

    14. clivep on

      There’s no indication that the war is over, even if Khameini is dead. In fact, it might embolden many of the IRGC to fight even harder. Maybe Iranians don’t head out to the streets, thinking the war is over like you are, and the regime doesn’t fall. Maybe there was already a succession plan in place for what happens if Khamenei dies. Maybe Iranian allies join up and take stronger action against US/Israel/West – whether military or economic, even if there’s not much resistance from Iran itself. Maybe China desides to invade Taiwan. Maybe Afghanistan/Pakistan blows up, especially since there is a huge vacuum to the west now that they can exploit.

      There is still a lot of uncertainty at this point, so i don’t expect markets (except gold and oil and some defensives/defense stocks) to do well until we have a clearer idea in the coming days where this is all going.

    15. Irishbros1991 on

      You would be a regard if you think him being killed ends this…. They probably have another successor in place already sure missiles are still flying.

    16. Extension_Dog_8511 on

      Not really a bull case to be had here; power vacuums don’t lend themselves to international stability. We are gonna go through a little red phase regardless of if he died today or not. If anything, the instability makes the market situation MORE volatile.

    17. timshel_life on

      Regime changes in a country that’s been partially cut off from the world is good for business

    18. Immediate-Link490 on

      The ‘war’ is not over because Khamenei is dead. They have a list of people to succeed him and every other person in a high ranking position.

    19. No_Alternative_6206 on

      Polymarket has it at 70% chance down on Monday. Generally agree because that could just mean it opens 0.1% down. Obviously down less with Iran leader gone. The bigger issue is we have no idea who is charge in Iran. Their military is still quite active.

    21. MaleCowShitDetector on

      What do you mean war would be essentially over? This isn’t a computer game.

      Most of the high ranking leadership is dead or about to be dead. Yet still they manage to fire missiles at us.

      According to recent reports we might achieve air superiority by tomorrow.

      But that doesnt mean the war is over. It just means that we’ll be able to bomb them more freely.

      This can be a month long war easily

    28. Skybreakeresq on

      If they got khamanei and enough of the irgc to convince the general populace to openly revolt you’ll see a bump. If not it’s going to at least dip a bit

    37. johndsmits on

      Uh, it’s reported we *was just taken out*.

      You got pak-afg in open war & the rus-ukr war escalating. And I think we’ll see more chaos in Iran than liberation.

      Calls, all war companies. heard of no such thing as defense last 12 months.

    41. CaptinCook007 on

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    47. Rcast1293 on

      The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact.

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