I'm guessing no, but if this drags on and oil continues to rise this could create inflation and we just got a higher inflation reading the other day. Trump said this even would last a few days, now he is saying a month. The consumer is on there last legs as is and if inflation doubles and goes to 6% over the next few months or longer it will be an issue. Thoughts.
Could US/Iran situation be the black swan event
byu/36Taylor36 inwallstreetbets
Posted by 36Taylor36
32 Comments
This was is not unforeseeable as needed for a classic black swan: markets and analysts were already flagging geopolitical risk and a war premium in oil prices before the latest strikes. That makes this an expected risk rather than a wholly surprising one.
This could though become a systemic black‑swan‑like event:
– Protracted disruption to Middle East exports with closure or effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, or sustained attacks on tankers and terminals, could remove a large share of seaborne supply and push prices sharply higher.
– plus wider regional war or major state collapse leading escalation that draws in multiple regional powers or breaks key production/transport infrastructure would create persistent supply shocks.
So prepare your calls on puts.
No
What if you posting this is actually the black swan event as someone sees this and then does something crazy
Private credit will be the problem
A war in the middle east is the whitest of all the swans
There was a “silent” correction already happening in tech, NASDAQ is 7% below ATH. Tech is really cheap now and the only thing keeping the S&P up is Walmart curing cancer. I think we won’t get the index drop and the correction in some sectors is underway/finishing/finished (software). But what do I know, I’m most likely wrong.
Yes very black swan, nobody expected it with the warships out and a verbal warning literally days before…
Not a black swan because everyone saw it potentially coming. Ya need to go reread that one son
No…unless something like a dirty bomb goes off. If you’re bear and you want this to happen, you’re god damn retarded.
If oil spikes above 100 per bbl, I’d guess strategic reserves would be released which in lessen severity if fear and such.
If no release if reserves then yes significant inflation and small caps start going down. My TZA up. 👾
So, since I’m sitting on mostly TZA, the market won’t dip as much as folks anticipate.
Good.luck out there
The longer the war drags out, the higher chance inflation will stay elevated. Fed Powell is like I’m glad I don’t have to deal with shenanigans once I’m done in 2 months.
Ukraine was more of a black swan event as far as supply chain.
Assuming it is done in a month, nothing changes as far as oil.
Markets don’t need a true black swan to overreact or go crazy. I think this is black swan #2. #1 was tariffs to 15%.
Someone is going to say high gas prices are bullish! Economy is doing great!
Black sawn in my prime earning years? Don’t mind if I buy the lows.
I like money
See from now it is a fat black swan already
All swans are black in Western Australia. We have seen it all before
Believe it or not, calls
Saudi refineries are being hit. So yeah, kind dark swan. Iran’s Kharg Island export terminal will get taken out soon. $200 oil isn’t unrealistic.
if you believe Iran had sleeper agents then its the start of a chain of small black swan events. 100% not baked in by the market.
obviously if all tankers go boom in Hormuz, its the black swan event, but it could be just the start if loyalists abroad start acting out.
Buy puts on oil or large oil company of your choosing. Might surge for a week or two but once the conflict is basically won they will plummet. Same thing happened with Iraq.
This was a grey rhino 🦏 event
If it leads to WW3, then yes…
No. Its only over for Donny, because Iran already win.
Alone No, but combined with a fragile market environment and an explosion in private credit. It had a great potential! The bankrupcy of MFS fits the category. It a bankruptcy for nearly 1 Billion dollar, connected to banks, no one saw coming and could be the tip of the iceberg.
I think it already is. It’s already spiraling out of control with Iran now hitting Saudi oilfields, and more countries being dragged into it.
This is midterms and we need to a LOT of distractions to keep from people asking questions about THEE files.
https://preview.redd.it/xqvt7bo6flmg1.png?width=543&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c179b7fafa912666ac43adf1a4f9f898e170bf8
our enemies understand our inflation predicament and, my guess, won’t be in a hurry to help
Black swan is something completely unexpected and no warning lmfao. People always get it confused.
You do know what a black swan event is right. As in something nobody saw coming
This is not going to last a month. If you follow any analyst/, the scale of the Iranian retaliation took the US by surprise. The stocks of interceptors might only have 5-7 days left before they have to push for a ceasefire
lol not sure you understand the definition of “black swan”…basically anyone with common sense foresaw this outcome
All I know is I’m going to be giving 2:1 discounts next to a dumpster behind Wendy’s. On the bright side the job has perks, I don’t need to buy a lot of food.