Bought 10 x March-11-26 USO $94 Calls on Friday. Was vaguely pulling for a +20-30% Monday open, but rumors G7 might release 300-400 million barrels dipped the market.
Good thing I love dip.
Big shout out to [u/Careful_Response4694](u/Careful_Response4694) with the insight that President Trump could impose export controls to crash WTI prices. With that in mind I'm crossing the Atlantic for some North Sea Tea.
Realized Profit: $12,525 from sale of 10 x USO March 11-26 $94 Calls
Rolled Position Into: 10 x USO Mar-18-26 $100 Call
Bought Additional: 10 x BNO Apr26 $40 Call
For now I am not paying a ton of attention to the G7 chatter. A 300-400 million barrel release would knock ~ 25% dent out of their strategic reserves during a time of major conflict. I wouldn't be surprised if they announce below that number or on the smaller end of that range. And what they are doing is equivalent to putting a band aid on an amputated limb.
Until the Straits of Hormuz show meaningful traffic, I will be long oil. I am not emotionally attached to this trade. Once the Straits open it's puts all day.
Side quests: I am holding CVNA Puts and OKLO Puts. These trades gain as oil rises.
CVNA Puts: Carvana transports almost every vehicle hundreds of miles. Higher fuel prices could smash CVNA's already hurting gross per unit (GPU). Carvana trades at 50 x earnings and "creative accounting" is an additional risk to share price.
Oklo Puts: Oklo has a cool concept and emphasizes their FAST reactor technology has been around for decades, but nobody has been able to make a profit doing what they are doing. In a risk-off market OKLO's $9 Billion market cap seems beyond excessive**.**
Disclosure: I am a retail trader, an automotive dealer, and not a financial professional. I have no professional or insider knowledge of the oil industry or nuclear insider.
https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1rp1mdm
Posted by BFLO-Retail
5 Comments
You’re always posting these massive gains, I trust your judgement here lol.
For the CVNA puts – seems like the obvious choice with how much fraud is going on with these companies but how are you overcoming the massive premium and volatility? Just weekly puts when it’s green for a good entry and selling for a minimal profit, rinse and repeat? Seems like further out puts would be better here no?
I guess its too late now to getcalls. Fuck
The crude forward curve is showing the market isn’t pricing in a prolonged closure of the strait. Take that as you will, but I’m skeptical about being long crude for anything expiring after March. Fuck CVNA though.
Just keep [this](https://www.thestreet.com/markets/venezuela-is-back-in-the-oil-game-at-a-critical-moment) in mind
The $123 calls I picked up this morning are currently kicking my portfolios ass. Hoping for some afternoon action after lunch or a leg up by tomorrow. We saw $133 pre market but now heading to $110 :/