$750k on SM Energy (Undervalued US Oil Producer)

I am the guy who bought IBM at $221.00, I closed that position for +$20k before doing this.

After seeing Bernie Sanders turn full Luddite trying to ban datacenters and Iran list my tech companies on a target list (I doubt they will hit anything – but politicians might make a stink and get a new datacenter / AI tax up for discussion) I wanted to risk-off some tech. Sold IBM and some Google to fund this.

I went looking for two things: Container ships and oil.

Unforuntately container ships are currently at the high point of a supercycle. Star Bulk (the one that got bombed by Iran) is still up 34% on the 1Y and 15% on the YTD.

I found High Point Energy but decided it's too risky with a tiny market cap and some weird stuff going on. SM Energy looks better.

Here's some basic DD but I had my good friends Claude and Gemini draft investment reports with a bunch of sources and watched youtube videos to learn how oil business works before moving.

Thesis on SM Energy:

• 526,000 Barrels of Oil Equivalent / day, P/E of literally 4.5 / Forward P/E of 3
• Trump is trying to use defense production to make oil in California, but this will be slow
• He will realize this is slow and turn to other domestic producers
• SM Energy is a 118 year old company with 823,000 acres across 5 shale regions, very difficult to disrupt, and they recently acquired another company, Civitas, on Jan 30th.
• All they need to do is destroy their debt, and oil being up 50% from when they got the debt will make this go much faster.

Risks:

• War ends early and everyone is happy and oil goes to $50
• Civitas integration doesn't go well, but seems like it's working – they already have Civitas's assets pumping oil for them.
• Market cap is $6B – mostly owned by hedgefunds currently, you aren't going to get good liquidity on options which is why I bought shares.

Stephens Price target for SM energy raised to $49 one day ago (current price $25.60):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/stephens-and-roth-capital-raise-price-targets-for-sm-energy-company-sm/ar-AA1Yqce0

Not investment advice / Obviously I have a long position as shown in the screenshot

Edit: forgot the rocket emojis 🚀🚀🚀