This Is What A 40% Crypto Crash Looks Like (I Can’t Unsee This)

This Is What A 40% Crypto Crash Looks Like (I Can’t Unsee This)

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Two scenarios are in play right now and I want to visualize both with you.

1. The optimistic one…war ends abruptly, oil comes back down, interest rates follow, narratives flip overnight.

S&P is already at its most oversold level in 24 months.

That setup has resolved higher 10 out of 10 times historically. The reset could already be nearly done.

2. The scenario I can’t unsee…we are post-QT for the second time.

Last cycle post-QT we got a capitulation event in early 2020. PMI pattern looks eerily similar right now. If that plays out again, we could see crypto drop another 40% from here.

That’s around $1.4T market cap.

Here’s what I keep coming back to though.

2008 felt like it was over. It wasn’t. 2020 felt like it was over. It ended FAST.

The capitulation events that feel the worst are often the shortest. The question isn’t really what’s going to happen. The question is can you hold for 60-90 days if it gets ugly.

I’m staying zoomed out, managing risk and anticipating both scenarios.

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This channel focuses on macro analysis, liquidity cycles, and market behavior to help long-term investors understand where we are in the broader financial cycle.

I break down capital flows, risk conditions, and economic context across markets — and when relevant, how assets like crypto fit into the bigger picture.

This content is for patient capital, not short-term speculation.

*The above video references an opinion and is for news/information and entertainment purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice, financial advice, or any solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer that you buy or sell any cryptocurrency or securities. Trading in cryptocurrencies and securities is a high risk activity involving risk of loss so please seek a duly licensed professional for investment or financial advice. The information provided on this video should not be used to make any investment or financial decisions without consulting your financial or investment advisor. This video contains my opinion only and is not intended to cause harm or defame anyone or any entity.