BTC pumped 8% and the $1.67B short added more. they’re still profitable.

the BTC bears are genuinely not impressed by the last move.

btc is up 7.8% in 6 days. every day green. and the short wallets I track (a bit like ELO ranking in chess) went from 548 to 568. they added during the rally.

they got in at $74k average. they're sitting on 4% gains right now. a whole week of green candles and their position got worse by 6%. that's it. they're not scared, they have no reason to close.

$74,285 is the number. that's where $1.67 billion in shorts are breakeven all at once. btc pushes through that with volume and the covering could cascade into a real squeeze. btc stalls in the 73-74k zone and starts fading, the bears just survived a 6 day rally and the move is probably over.

the thing that's odd to me is the wallets with the best track records in this dataset cut their longs by 38% during this rally. they're not short either. they just stopped adding.

so you've got a real rally, bears unmoved, and the best longs reducing. $74k tells you which side was right.

tldr: bears holding, watch $74,285. I'll write an update in a few days.