Prices will not go down fro Americans, next year prices will go up, even if war ended right now

Let us talk about microchips.

Aluminium, Helium and LNG to make chips come through Hormuz. 33% of world's supply of Helium comes from there. So you thought electronics would be expensive? Wait until you see the effects in the output of production lines of Taiwan's microchips very soon.

Let us talk about shipping fees.

Also prices of crude oil and refined are de-pegged. Crude oil may remain stable, but refined oil for shipping is reaching record prices. Refined oil is needed in Singapore, Rotterdam and Fuhaira in UAE, the 3 ports that are key for worldwide shipping. If refined oil does not reach these 3 ports, it does not matter if US produces oil, refined oil will not be where world shipping needs it. So it does not matter if US produces oil. And different types of oil produce different levels of oil needed for shipping and American oil does not contain the most of it. Any imports will become extremely expensive.

Let us talk about prices of food for Americans.

Also, fertilizer for USA comes from Hormuz. And it is mostly needed by US farmers now. But farmers cannot pass the price increase to consumers because they do not have enough leverage. So what they are doing to cut losses is to sell their crops to energy companies for a higher price.

So in 2027 data centers will be eating the food of Americans, energy companies are competing with Americans for food. So not only Americans will have higher prices, but also emptier shelves. And these deals are taking place right now, so even if the war ends right now, that will happen to Americans in 2027.

Why is it happening?

Trump knows minus zero about supply lines. He is a TV showman with some experience in real estate. His plan was: Kill leader, get capitulation. And he is trying to kill leaders to get out of this mess. But it is not working.

War is physical, like a fight in a boxing ring. You cannot win in a boxing ring with narratives. A KO cannot be turned into a victory narrative.

The longer this war lasts, the more expensive it will be for Americans to make a living next year. Oil barrel does not need to reach $200 a gallon to make the lives of American a nightmare.

My political prediction.

My guess is that Democrats will not impeach Trump during this administration. They will allow him to continue making crazy decisions so he deals with the bubble bursting in 2027 and the price increases, so Trump cannot say "if I wasn't be impeached, the economy would be better". That way in 2028 Trump will only have crisis to show to Americans. And then Democrats will present themselves as the ones who will try to save the day.

So save money this year, because the next one seems to be a hard one.