$30k YOLO on $DG puts. If this war isn’t over soon, things are going to look real ugly

– Core customer makes <$35k/yr. Gas at $4.50+/gal eats their savings before they even walk in the door

– Stores are rural. High gas = fewer trips. The discount doesn't matter if the drive costs more than you save

– Management guided $7.10-7.35 EPS two days ago. That guidance assumes oil isn't at $90+. It is. Guidance is already dead

– Every $10/bbl oil sustained for a quarter shaves ~$0.15-0.20 off EPS. Do the math on a $20+ spike

– DG runs 20,000 stores with a massive truck fleet. Diesel eats gross margin directly. They don't have Walmart's scale to negotiate it away

– Last time they missed on "consumer health" (2024), stock dropped 32% in a single day. Algos remember

– If Iran drags on 5 more weeks, mid-April negative pre-announcement is on the table. Algos will front-run it to ~$105

– 80%+ of sales are low-margin essentials now. More volume, worse margins

– Smart money already rotating out — Victory Capital cut 50%, Grantham Mayo cut 70%

Position: long 100 x $110 June ‘26 put contracts