While it was not a surprise that they are holding rates steady, the projections have become more pessimistic. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl2026
Compared to December last year, more participants are leaning toward downside risks to GDP growth, upside risks to unemployment rate and inflation.
Risks to GDP growth
Number of participants
| Date of projections | Weighted downside | Balanced | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | 14 | 5 | 0 |
| December 2025 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
Risks to the unemployment rate
Number of participants
| Date of projections | Weighted downside | Balanced | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | 0 | 3 | 16 |
| December 2025 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Date of projections | Weighted downside | Balanced | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | 0 | 2 | 17 |
| December 2025 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
Feds latest projections from March 2026 are on the pessimistic side
byu/kktvMIN instocks
Posted by kktvMIN
3 Comments
WONDER WHY
This is what winning looks like.
Risk of employment? Getting highest. And you are still pessimistic? What a loser. More rate cuts coming whether you like it or not. Another wave of inflation increasing, more people will park it in AI stocks