Oil Market Drivers – Mar 18

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I've seen a lot of interest in oil market drivers with everything going on at present. I usually just cover weekend developments but im doing mid-week specials with everything going on.

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Daily Oil Brief – Mar 18 – From South Pars to Ras Laffan – Prices Surge

Latest de-escalations by Trump on Wednesday evening:

Trump wants no more energy strikes, but supported the attack on South Pars – WSJ

But Trump could once again be open to targeting additional Iranian energy facilities depending on Tehran's future actions in strategic waterway – WSJ

1) Israel Strikes Iran's South Pars Gas Field in Landmark Escalation of Gulf Conflict

Israeli forces struck Iran's South Pars gas field on Wednesday in what represents one of the most significant escalations of the conflict to date. The attack targeted gas treatment facilities linked to South Pars – the world's largest gas field, shared with Qatar, and the backbone of Iran's domestic energy system. Iranian state-linked media reported a fire broke out but was subsequently brought under control. The operation was conducted in coordination with the United States.

2)Iran Names US-Linked Gulf Energy Sites as Legitimate Retaliation Targets

Following the South Pars strike, Iran identified five major Gulf energy facilities as legitimate targets for retaliation. The list is notably calibrated: every site carries a significant American corporate interest, framing potential strikes as direct economic retaliation against the US as much as regional adversaries.

3)QatarEnergy Reports Extensive Damage at Ras Laffan; Ballistic Missiles Intercepted Over Riyadh

Iran has followed through on at least one of its stated retaliation targets. QatarEnergy confirmed extensive damage at Ras Laffan industrial city following missile strikes – the same facility named on Iran's target list earlier in the day. Separately, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Defence confirmed it intercepted four ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh, with debris from one falling in the vicinity of a refinery south of the capital.

4) Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura Refinery Restarts After 11-Day Drone-Strike Shutdown

Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery – one of the world's largest crude export facilities – returned to operations on 13 March, ending an 11-day outage that began after a drone strike on 2 March. The restart was confirmed by Industrial Info Resources.

5) Iraq Resumes Kirkuk Crude Exports via Ceyhan at 250,000 b/d After Baghdad-KRG Deal

Iraq's northern export route via the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline resumed on Wednesday following a deal between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government. The North Oil Company confirmed initial flows of 250,000 b/d, with the potential to scale to 450,000 b/d if KRG fields are included. Iraq's southern output had plunged 70% to around 1.3–1.4 million b/d since the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, making the northern route a critical alternative. Brent eased in early trading on the news before the South Pars escalations.