Thesis: Oilprice.com reported oil floating storage has fallen from 140 mb to 78 mb in three weeks of conflict. Three more weeks will take this number into critical flashing red territory.
Trump has declared the military operation will start winding down. Meanwhile additional ships and marines are heading to the conflict zone. This reminds of the old guy at the poker table saying "Well it's time for me to go home" as he pushes all his chips into the middle. Nice try Grandpa.
Rolled $USO Calls to 3-25-26. Will continue rolling weeklies to keep premium low and Delta high. I trade in the money (itm) options to target a Delta of .80+. Every dollar the underlying gains my positions will rise more than $80 per contract and for every dollar the price drops my position will fall less than $80 per contract (Delta rises as underlying moves deeper itm and Delta falls as underlying drops closer to the money).
Certain degenerates have called me deeply hurtful names for using this approach instead of yoloing deep OTM calls. They have badly hurt my feelings and I will have no choice but to cry into a huge pile of money.
Positions and Disclosure: I am a retail trader and not a financial advisor or commodities expert. I am long USO and BNO. Short CVNA and GLD. Would love to add more physical gold ~$2000 an oz. The chances of that happening are higher than some of the fanatic Gold Bugs on rddt would like to admit. And CVNA is just begging to return to well-deserved 2022 numbers.
https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1rzsc4r
Posted by BFLO-Retail
16 Comments
I’m just sitting this one out. Under normal circumstances sure, you could project out, and make a play based on reasonable expectations and historical patterns. But in this environment based on whims where a tweet in the morning followed by a tweet in the afternoon turns the whole market from deep in the red to deep in the green and viceversa, it’s pure gambling. Worse than gambling , because even that has rules that don’t change mid game. I think the only certainty is uncertainty, so volatility might be the best play ultimately.
Victory declared , premature pullout in 2 weeks
I hate trading oil….its 100% manipulated by politicians
Smart guy. The guy is saying “oh the war is over, let’s de-escalate “, while the reality is that they’re sending more troops 🤦♂️. Sounds like he’s trying to keep this market stable cause it’s hanging on by a THREAD 🧵
You have a position in… CVNA?! 😂
omg oil prices are gonna make me cry next time i fill up my car 😭 rip my summer road trip budget.
Oil’s never gonna hit a hundred and fifty in april
Once you’re like 50% profitable, you should pullout, you never know when the US deploys its secret Alien weapons/ships to dominate the region
I am long oil, short airlines via late April puts.
Too many internet people are overthinking this very simple trade, as is their wont.
TLDR: Hormuz closed, Gulf energy destroyed, oil prices up.
I was going to hold calls but the price will drop on speculation. If there is any hope pumped into the air next week, a reversal will be fast. In reality, you’re making a very good move.
The facts changed this week on gold. I had to dump it. Now long BNO, UCO, and short UWM/Russel 2000 2x etf
I was on board with your retard until you said gold at $2k oz. At that point your iq dropped a hundred points from the retard level. With all this inflation and take of lower rates, gld is not hitting $200 again. If it does from deflation, then we’re all fucked and won’t even be able to afford gold for $2000/oz.
Fuck it I’m stupid and my shits all tarded so I’m just going to copy you, hopefully Monday is a dip so I can get into position
If these kids can read they’d be buying XLE right now
At first glance, I thought you had added $YOLO just for fun
You cooked 😂