Saw the S&P futures chart on Blossom this morning and honestly had to look twice because I thought I was still half asleep. Trump announced a 5-day suspension on attacks targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, citing “constructive talks” with Tehran, and Iran immediately came out and denied any talks even happened. And yet S&P futures +2%, Dow +2.1%, Nasdaq +2.1% and oil dropped hard after weeks above $100.
I get why the market is reacting because after weeks of constant bad news people are desperate for any sign this thing is winding down, but a 5-day pause where the other side is denying the talks even exist doesn’t exactly scream resolution to me. Hormuz is still a problem, the Fed still isn’t cutting, inflation is still sticky, and $XOM $LMT $RTX everything that ran hard on the war trade is about to get tested at open.
Are you buying this gap up or does it feel like a trap to you?
Trump just announced a 5-day pause on Iran strikes and futures are up 2%+ across the board, is this the relief rally or a dead cat bounce?
byu/National-Theory1218 instocks
Posted by National-Theory1218
44 Comments
TACO Monday?
Dead cat. Trump is showing weakness. Iran will keep pressing on it.
Apparently Iran just said there are no negotiations going on and Trump lied.
He’s probably lying, again (shocker)
Fake news 🗞️ us likely won’t stop
Don’t care. Doesn’t matter
How does this change the situation on the ground??
He’s lying to kick the can down the road they have no solution Iran is winning and they’re freaking out
LOL. Have you learned nothing in the last year.
I predict it’s only bounce.
[Iran denies claims: ‘We reject all negotiations – US has failed and Hormuz will remain closed’](https://www.ynetnews.com/article/0t2zpd7dr).
War is not over, Israel says they will continue strikes, also strait is still closed. No clear signs of end anytime soon
> Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements about “productive conversations” that took place in recent days between the countries.
> “Iran maintains its position rejecting any type of negotiation before achieving its war objectives,” according to a statement quoted by the Sabereen news agency. “Trump’s statement is a retreat from his earlier threats, but the Islamic Republic remains committed to its declared positions. Its position on the Strait of Hormuz has not changed and the passage will remain closed to the aggressors attacking Iran.”
> Spokesman for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee in the Iranian Parliament, Ibrahim Rezaei, claimed: “The battle continues. Another defeat for Satan. Trump and the U.S. have failed again.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/0t2zpd7dr
Iran just said there are no negotiations going on and nothing has changed. Manipulation?
Classic stock manipulation.
Iran debunked this minutes after Trump’s false tweet
No one knows. Especially not anyone posting/commenting on Reddit.
People keep sourcing that stupid ass Iranian twitter page as some all-knowing entity
“Iranian state media source an unnamed official”
I’d like to think the White House probably has direct lines to someone with actual authority in Iran, instead of some random mid level commander in Iran saying random baseless shit to a Twitter page, that is known to base obvious AI pics/vids as proof.
The media will sell anything though. This gets clicks.
TACO??
Dude is a f-ing madman. Whackadoodle.
It’s the same cycle with these guys, Fup real bad by Friday, everything goes down, some empty news over the weekend, stocks go up for a day or so, rinse and repeat.
Check back every 30 seconds for the rest of TACO’s term because who knows wtf the moron does
Meowwrraakkkkkk…..
It’s just a lie statement to stabilise markets. Iran said there were no talks at all and I trust Iran more than Trump
The market manipulation is astounding lol. I can’t believe they’re still falling for it.
The pause is for the strikes on power plants. I believe the other attacks will continue…
5 days for his buddies to sell everything before shit hits the fan
Its just a fcking market manipulation . Nothing more
More of the same TACO shit. By tomorrow, more threats in all capitals at 4:00AM. Markets tumble again.
We are just getting started…
Why is the market reacting to trump’s lies (up) and not reacting to Iran’s probably legit response that there were no talks, there is no ceasefire and Hormuz is still closed?
Market manipulation. The goal posts will move throughout the week
5-day pause with iran denying the talks even happened.. that’s not a ceasefire, that’s a timeout and the market is pricing in the optimistic version of a situation that hasn’t changed.
It’s amusing how many people here cite mullahs. They’re liars by trade, and they lie even when they’re talking. Anything coming out of Iran is propaganda.
Has Trump confirmed with Bibi that this was OK?
It’s called manipulation.
TACO is the most predictable trade.
Starting a war takes one party. Ending a war takes everyone involved.
trump lied.
Basing investments around what that megalomaniac is doing is a losing strategy. He doesn’t even know what he’s doing.
If you’re buying today you deserve all the losses you incur. You either held through the down news. Or you sold early and bought back in. Or had dry powder and bought on the down days.
But you don’t buy into the rally day. All the smart money says that when things seem to be at their worst and everyone is selling… that’s when you buy. That’s not today.
Maybe you hope for a huge day or two and then try to buy a dip in a couple days. Idk.
All my opinion and I have no idea what I’m doing.
I feel like this is the classic taco move… but he can’t taco out a war he started when the other side now sells oil for more, can (for now) control oil out of the strait, and prove to it’s neighbors that it can really hurt them.
What will happen is that today, the news will herald his genius in ending the war. By Tuesday, the news will be like… wait, it’s not over? By Wednesday, news will show how cowardly he is by going soft in a war. By Thursday, it’s back to missile o’clock.
5 days? More specifically end of market day Friday.
Who knows? Trump is a liar & Iran is not so trustworthy either.
Just work your plan and let time do it’s thing. What else is there to do? 🤷🏻♂️
I don’t see how he can TACO his way out of this one. Israel and Iran are at each other’s throats and Israel seems happy to keep walking up the escalation ladder.
Calling it now: This is a strategic pause to reload all assets prior to the USS Tripoli and other warships carrying Marine Expeditionary Units and air assets attempting to enter the Persian Gulf through the Straight of Hormuz.
Israel will keep the pressure up, as we’re seeing this morning, then when the naval and marine assets are ready to pass through the Strait, there will be another major USAF/USN offensive while they pass through to provide cover. We will try to pick off any missile systems that come out of the caves to send ordnance towards the ships in the Strait.
If history has taught us anything, it will probably happen Friday night or over the weekend once markets or closed. Given the timeline of when the Tripoli left the Pacific, it should be on track to reach the Persian Gulf late this week.