I don't understand how pricing works.
Just because trump announced a potential ceasfire, there is no certainty that it will happen.
The strait is still closed.
It is Iran that closed the strait.
Iran is at war with Israel, who did not agree to a ceasfire.
Even if usa drops out, war is not over.
Why does the market react?
Posted by Arg19
4 Comments
I think the market as a whole is extremely desperate for lower prices because the implication of higher prices is catastrophic (due to the inflation/debt/monetary easing conundrum). So the market is pretty much taking Trump at his word, which is ridiculous, but markets can be stupid longer than smart people are willing to be patient
Since Saturday the digital price and the barrel price have disconnected from reality
Right now the digital price is decided by whatever Trump says on his way to board a helicopter
There is no fundamental angle to trade on anymore and the best position anyone could be in right now is Cash
edit: it’s not like three Mondays ago where you could make 12% each time a picture of an explosion reached CNBC. Right now missile strikes do nothing, confirmed hits do nothing, assassinations do nothing – it’s 100% about what comes out of Donald J Trump’s mouth
The market thinks Iran will roll over and accept a stop to the conflict.
Just to get bombed a year later.
I think it may not work this time. Trump will have to take a loss one way or another this time.
Talks are going on. Oil will drop further we should see meetings this week