…what % drop of the markets are you all anticipating? Personally I think the day there’s no longer any doubt that the US is in there for the long haul, and the fuel shortages will be continuous not temporary, there will be panic in the markets. I did feel the administration was desperate to avoid this but with today’s news that the Saudis are encouraging him to invade… well, I think we’re cooked. He cares far more what billionaires think of him than anything else. Is today the day to sell and wait it out?
The day of the ground invasion
byu/TheBobRoberts111 instocks
Posted by TheBobRoberts111
30 Comments
Why would it go down? I wouldn’t be surprised if it shot up with this market lol.
no ground invasion whatsoever
1000000% guaranteed
mark it
I think a ground invasion is a remote possibility.
However, if it happened, I believe markets would go up in anticipation of a quick victory. If that didn’t happen, then markets would fall.
Part of a ground invasion is priced in and will depend on likelihood we will back out or leave early. Could be little to no reaction.
Massive sell off followed by all the money that has been waiting for the invasion entering the market and we end the day solid green.
Im more worried what the market will do if they do something to us rather than if we do something to them tbh
But I agree it’s inevitable
The OP should liquidate his entire portfolio.
I still have two friends that are still out of the market after liquidating last year during tariffs.
If you liked Afghanistan……..
Why would anyone think a ground invasion would lead to a quick resolution, or optimism of any kind?
Ground invasion of Iraq in 03 was the bottom of the market
war is bullish historically
There are too many bears waiting to join the market to have a huge sell off not followed by a rapid buy in. I see people praying every day for that 🥲.
Impossible to predict what this version of boots on the ground will be.
I dunno but I’ll be watching carefully 🧐
Waiting for S%P to drop below 500 and I’ll buy more.
110$ its a ground invasion of Kharg island not Iran itself
Even without a ground invasion, equities are cooked. A recession is baked in now.
The market will find a catalyst to play on the “news”, the same way a bird finds a worm.
The smart money already distributed to retail over 6 months of sideways chop.
nobody really knows, geopolitical shocks tend to front-run the actual event and then fade faster than people expect. sitting in cash or sizing way down until there’s actual clarity isn’t a bad call, trying to predict the exact drop percentage is just guessing with extra steps.
Ptous said no ground invasion. You can trust our president, the most honest man in history
Prior to invade Iraq, SPY lost 50%.
Will be a disaster. SPY down over 10% first week alone.
Iraq invasion took 120k to 130k troops with a coalition of the willing.
2000 marines will hardly make a dent much less hold kharg island long enough to negotiate.
This was prepped as an air raid. Boots on the ground was a desparation move.
When I hear ground “invasion” I have to chuckle.
I heard they’re sending over a few thousand marines.
Iran has over 1M military personnel…
Oil will go up to 150.
RIP global economy.
I would say it depends on whether Strait of Hormuz is open. I don’t see a scenario where the waterway isn’t a top priority. If it came to an invasion, I don’t see IRGC diverting resources to oil tankers when Tehran and strategic military locations are under threat.
Bullish
We are not invading. Trump will lost half of the Republicans, including some MAGA, if he does that. that means he loses the Midterms. What will he gain by boots on the ground? Not much….
Ground invasions mean real long term change of regime and the end of war insight. Call!!!
There won’t be any ground invasion. The Saudi comments were purposefully leaked to put pressure on Iran during negotiations, and the US mobilization is also just for leverage. Expect a deal to be struck within the coming days.
There is very little chance of a “ground invasion”. It’s possible there might be some special ops type missions but I put that as a low probability too.
Trump is going to declare victory soon no matter the circumstances and then move on to the next shiny object which I predict will be Cuba.