$VCX is going on an autistic bull run despite being a closed end fund of fixed assets. It's one of the most retarded things I've seen all year.
The company is ~437M self-reported NAV of private companies.
But with 28.3M shares outstanding
That 380/sh * 28.3M = 10.7B market cap for 437M of NAV.
You can see what they own, most of the speculative value comes from their holdings in these hard to find AI private companies:
So I did some math on what the current MNAV multiple means.
Applying this premium to the underlying private company valuations provides the following "look-through" metrics:
| Holding | Portfolio Weight | Implied Stake Value in VCX | Est. Private Co. Shares Outstanding | % Held by VCX | Assumed Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Databricks | 21.9% | $2.36 Billion | ~705 Million | 0.088% | $2.68 Trillion |
| Anthropic | 11.5% | $1.24 Billion | ~1.47 Billion | 0.016% | $7.61 Trillion |
| OpenAI | 9.4% | $1.01 Billion | ~1.49 Billion | 0.006% | $16.82 Trillion |
| Total Top 3 | 42.8% | $4.61 Billion | — | — | $27.11 Trillion |
So are you buying OpenAI at 16B for the valuation MSFT, NVDA, GOOG, AAPL combined?
This is an imminent -80%+ if you have pain tolerance.
Getting fucked on my short 50 shares position:
But I'm sure we'll head back to reality.
Who are you up against?
Crayon sniffers thinking they're holding the next 100x, while buying at 20X nav.
TL;DR: short retail buying 400m nav for 10b
This is the dumbest shit I've seen in awhile [DD]
byu/Virtual_Seaweed7130 inwallstreetbets
Posted by Virtual_Seaweed7130
13 Comments
It’s gonna be a epic rug pull
Can you even short it yet?
Your thesis is smart. I really want to join you. And for that reason, I’m out. Smart money don’t make no money.
Fu&k i missed to load it😩
so calls it is
So ur saying I need to buy this? Fk it one of us win
bruh 💀
I’ll wait for a 2x or 3x leveraged VCX comes out to play
I bought at $97 and sold at $105 for a quick scalp because I thought no one was stupid enough to pay 5X NAV at the time.
Guess I’m the dumb one because I underestimated a fool’s desire to pay 20X NAV…
Irregardless I do enjoy the smell of crayons
I was in pre IPO. Sold most of it already lmao.
This has been my most WSB-level returns ever, and it came from a really simple strategy: forgetting about the investment. I threw $500 into the private fund when it got added to SoFi’s platform just as a lottery ticket, and it hit. Truly hadn’t looked at this account all of last week, was confused why I had a sudden jump on Monday and saw my original shares had converted after the IPO.
https://preview.redd.it/3wdlsja5e3rg1.jpeg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1f32062f68f73c192d72e4176aae897b0a42425d
It’s doesn’t seem that bad as you said they are valued at 10 billion and their top 3 holdings are valued at 5 billion and are increasing in value a lot every funding round. The fund also is 7% Anduril, 5% space x. It also shows Anthropic is 20% of fund and not 11.5%, databricks is 18%, openai 10% as of Feb.15. So it doesn’t seem that out of touch with reality.