For those who have Substack, encourage you to subscribe Robert Pape and read this piece that just came out. For those who do not, this piece is simple. Pape’s argument: ignore Trump’s words on Iran — they’re intentionally ambiguous. Watch the troops instead. The U.S. has quietly amassed a massive military presence in the Gulf (carrier groups, 50,000+ personnel, now 82nd Airborne), and unlike the Greenland rhetoric that went nowhere, these deployments create real, hard-to-reverse momentum toward war.
https://open.substack.com/pub/professorrobertpape/p/trumps-words-dont-predict-war-his?r%3D7zv7p2%26utm_medium%3Dios
Posted by Puzzled_Week_2488
6 Comments
Whole lot of “It isn’t this. It’s that.” just to say that deployment = escalation.
Still, it’s a good point. There don’t seem to be many optimists at the moment.
The stock market today runs on headlines, less so on facts. The reason behind which this is the case is because so many are highly – leveraged that they jump on anything that supports their narrative.
In the latest development, Trump today has forwarded the same 15 negotiation points to Iran before Iran was attacked in May 2025. The increasing deployment of ground troops close to the Straits of Hormuz confirms a sustained military operation is more likely than not.
The global oil supply has suffered a supply crunch for almost an entire month which will have already impact upwards cost pressure at each step of the supply chain – inflation is imminent in the next 12 months. The earning season will reflect the ballooning of business expenses due to higher energy prices.
Delta force, seal team 6, 1st and 2nd batt 75th rangers, the 82nd, USAF 621st runway repair unit plus 2 MEU? This is for Chabahar and the Konarak airport. The world simply won’t be be the same after Trump upgrades this excursion into an incursion. We will start to see unrest and instability back in the US.
That why these clowns are asking for a month long ceasefire, they have no plan to really negotiate anything. And at this point, what bargaining chip does the west have except for brute force.
Where does rhe 50K troops number come from?…. there’s jowhwre near that in theater
I was just thinking to myself, “his new thing seems to be, play it cool, then bomb the hell out of ’em and say they failed negotiations…”