Could a peace deal in the Middel East cause financial turmoil?

So global finance is not really my avenue. I did my Bachelor in Econ, but the little choice I had I put into econometrics and then abandoned the "dismal science". But some time ago I learned about the problem of the Japanese carry trade. I was basically wondering how a sudden correction in the oil price and thus probably the Yen, impact investors invested in the trade.

Here's what I've been thinking: A Peace Deal causes a crash in the oil price. A crash in oil prices drastically reduces Japan's trade deficit, potentially forcing a rapid, fundamental appreciation of the Yen. Now the currently slow unwinding of the carry trade drastically accelerates, forcing more and more investors to sell off their tech assets to get liquidity. And since asset prices are already low they can't act now, because that would mean you'd there will be a tax event and you have to lock in losses.

Does this make sense? Is so could investors hedge against such an event?