Here's my napkin maths.
This move in VCX because of their exposure to Anthropic.. then you have people pumping that Orb nonsense because of its exposure to inferior OpenAI.
Yet $ZM, yes, Zoom Video owns a 1% stake in Anthropic due to its early investment in 2023. In fact, it owns far more than any of these combined.
Furthermore, it generates 2bn in FCF a year, has a market cap of 22bn, with 7.8bn in cash
. Giving it an EV value of 14.8bn with its Anthropic investment worth approx 4bn Meaning, its entire core business trades at 5x FCF ($10bn)
Making Zoom essentially the best way to publicly gain exposure to Anthropic. In a realistic sense you’re buying Anthropic here for below NAV, when standard multiples are applied to ZMs core business.
Easy 20% move on deck imo, may pick some options up too.
$ZM – Best Anthropic Play, Trades Below Nav.
byu/Stonkgang_ inwallstreetbets
Posted by Stonkgang_
17 Comments
this math checks out
Not bad. Adding to watch list
Indeed this napkin math seems to math, this is a good call based on all of the hype surrounding Anthropic. Including how much income they generate and their increased market cap as of recently. Let’s see where this goes…see you on the moon
Ill throw a couple sheckles at it
I went with SKM, they also have a significant investment in Anthropic considering their market cap
I don’t understand how Zoom will access the value locked inside their shares in Anthropic?
This is actually borderline not regarded
Amazon and Google are among the top owners of Anthropic and both stocks are selling at discounts due to market volatility
Some big options trades hit this morning before your post as well.
4/10 80C – 3,150 contracts x 1.68 per contract. ~$530K
4/10 82C – 400 contracts x 1.00 per contract. ~$40K
4/17 82C – 1,400 contracts x 1.13 per contract. ~$158K
After your post, someone seemed to take your advice and buy:
3/27 80C – 1,000 contracts at .42 per contract. ~$42K
I’m going to do you all a favor and not buy in.
So it should go up
The problem with zm is the slowly eroding moat. Goog and MSFT both offer a similar service basically for free as part of their b2b productivity suites.
Anthropic stake aside, it’s a declining business
Edit: with 3% yoy rev growth and falling it’s basically a flat business
buying Anthropic exposure below NAV through Zoom is kinda genius.
Zoom is a cash machine, they just don’t know what to do with it. Instead of building a shit ton of useless features and add-ons, they should just continue to sell the core meetings product and become a VC with the additional cash
Yeah that’s the interesting part. A lot of these “indirect AI” plays are still trading on narratives or even at discounts, but VCX has just been getting repriced straight up. Feels like the market is putting a real premium on direct access to private AI exposure instead of trying to piece it together through public names.
I think that 7.8B already includes their Anthropic stake. They have to realize income on their investment and mark it up often.
Like that play
No cash to spare sadly
May the good side of regardness be with you
Anthropic has raised multiple rounds. Each round dilutes Zoom’s percentage ownership. Zoom’s actual ownership is now somewhere between 0.6% and 1.1%, depending on anti-dilution protections (which are unknown). The actual percentage is not publicly disclosed and could be significantly lower.