I was looking at Walmart long-term chart and it kind of blew my mind. Over roughly the last five years WMT is up about 230%, which feels weird for a company that most people still think of as a slow, defensive retailer. What’s even stranger is the valuation it’s trading at now. The P/E is somewhere around 40–45x, which is the type of multiple you usually see on growth tech companies, not a grocery and big-box retailer.

    From what I can tell, Walmart’s revenue growth has mostly been around ~5% and EBITDA growth closer to ~3%, so it’s not like athe underlying business suddenly started growing like a software company. Yet the stock basically tripled in a few years.

    The bullish explanation I keep hearing is that Walmart is turning into more of a platform. People point to things like Walmart+, their advertising business, ecommerce logistics, and marketplace expansion. But at the end of the day it’s still a retailer with pretty thin margins.

    So I’m trying to understand what the market is pricing here. Did Walmart actually transform into some kind of hybrid retail-tech platform… or did the market just decide that a stable company with decent execution deserves a tech-style multiple?

    Right now it almost feels like Walmart is being treated as both a defensive bond proxy and a hyper-growth company at the same time, which doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.

    https://i.redd.it/5311ssbbsarg1.jpeg

    Posted by xProjectxPrincess

    8 Comments

    1. Since they got the bugs worked out of Walmart+ we get like 80% of our groceries from them and that’s been a few years now.

    2. As stuff gets more expensive, Walmart is seen as a cheaper option.  The more people buy there the better their bottom line.

    3. TheSleepyTruth on

      Because it got repriced from a legacy department/grocery store to a tech-forward online mega-retailer now rivaling amazon.

    4. whatsagoinon1 on

      Of all the companies up that much or more in the last 5 years. This is the one you wonder why. This is probably one of the few that are actually warranted.

    5. Walmart+ locked in a lot of people. You get same day delivery, a random streaming service, other discounts. Also allows others to sell on the platform. It’s basically Amazon lite with an actual retail footprint.

    6. Motor-Region-1011 on

      Because brick ans mortar buissness will survive AI…all the tech companies will get whiped out. Software will be worthless.

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