We saw this play out in the Red Sea. Attacks slowed down, ceasefire announced, and ships still didnt go back through. Insurance wouldn't cover it. Operators wouldnt risk it. Port infrastucture was damaged.
Same thing is going to happen with Hormuz. Even if attacks stop by April-May, tankers probably dont normalize until July at the earliest. LNG carriers will be last because nobody is sending a brand new LNG carrier through until conditions are proven safe. Those things cost more than most tankers combined.
Prolonged conflict scenario is 10+ months before things look normal. Everyone treating this like a light switch. Its a slow dial.
Interested to hear if anyone has a different read on the timeline though. Feels like the insurance market alone could drag this out longer than people expect
Hormuz wont reopen like a light switch even if the fighting stops tomorrow
byu/Bulky_Traffic2229 inoil
Posted by Bulky_Traffic2229
3 Comments
Yes, and it is not completely closed right now.
Iranian, Chinese, etc. tankers are going out.
Going to long oil?
So can v say IMPP uo due to shipping cost Zero Debt n growing REV 99% Vessel’s booked for 2026/27. ASSET value =12 SP=4.50.
Not US tanker added advantage.