Right now, every time oil pushes up toward $100, the administration comes out and tells us they’re winning the war is over. Apparently it’s been “won” about four times so far… along with two great peace deals and one big beautiful present.
My barometer is the Strait of Hormuz. As long as Iran has the ability to threaten the ~20% of the world’s oil that moves through there, they can’t allow a real chokehold.
Until that changes, the reality is simple: it’s basically a ping-pong market around $100 oil.
They can say whatever they want — the reality is harder to hide.
Buy every $90 barrel.
Sell every $98 barrel.
Posted by DullHall7
5 Comments
Others on this sub will know better, but I imagine that will change if/when we burn through these reserves that have been released.
Is there a timeline for when those 400M barrels are gone?
Even those with the most risk tolerance have a difficult time holding trades in this environment. Liquidity in futures is as low as I’ve ever seen it and algos don’t know what to do with each headline. Good luck to anyone with enough grit to hold on to some deltas.
Bad news.. already above 100
this game only lasts so long and if (when) boots are on the ground the rules will be rewritten.
I’ve moved from holding to trading the volatility and trying to bet on the direction opposed to long holding for the $100-$120 a barrel (WTI).
Too many times has Donald Trump tweeted and my portfolio and gains decimated.
Today for example I ran from 90-92 with around 100 barrels, closed the trade and re-positioned at $92 with a trailing stop loss capped at $91 to ride the wave but not destroy gains when I’m not looking at the charts.
Happy to lose $100-$300 on a bad call but there’s been times on the last weeks I’ve lost 3-10k in profits because I’ve forgot to set a stop loss or I’ve missed a tweet saying the war was over.