Everyone is blaming miners for the BTC drop — the on-chain data tells a different story

I kept seeing people point at miners as the reason btc is struggling. so i actually looked at the data.

miner supply ratio? declining since early 2025. miner selling power? also declining. miners are actually distributing LESS than they were before the halving. the whole "post-halving miner capitulation" narrative doesn't hold up when you look at the numbers.

the real issue is on the buy side. the market shifted from supply-driven to demand-driven sometime in early 2025 and most people haven't updated their framework yet.

even with miners selling less, there's not enough buying interest coming in to absorb the existing float. no meaningful whale accumulation showing up on-chain. etf inflows not stepping in at scale. the float just sits there with nobody willing to take it aggressively.

demand voids like this can last longer than people expect. they usually end when one of three things happens — a macro catalyst, visible whale accumulation on-chain, or etf inflows coming back strong.

so genuine question for anyone watching this closely — what specific signal would actually convince you the demand void is over? etf inflows crossing a certain threshold? whale wallets accumulating at a specific level? or does it need a full macro shift first?