I often hear that by the time a regular person reacts to geopolitical news (wars, supply shocks, etc.), financial markets have already priced it in, so trying to invest based on that information is pointless (i.e. "just buy an ETF").

    But does the same logic apply to personal finance and home economics?

    For example: if a conflict threatens aluminum production, it probably doesn’t make sense for me to trade aluminum futures — I’m competing against sophisticated institutions. But does it make sense to preemptively buy things like cookware or other aluminum-based products before retail prices adjust (considering I need those aluminum pans and was planning to do so at this years Christmas)?

    In other words, are consumer prices “slower” and therefore more exploitable than financial markets, or is this also mostly a dead end?

    Are geopolitical events “priced in” for investors but NOT for consumers?
    byu/BigBootyBear inAskEconomics



    Posted by BigBootyBear

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