Here are the last few times this happened:
March 19, 2025: the market fell a further 15% over the next 3 weeks
October 17, 2023: the market fell a further 6% over the next week
February 24, 2022: the S&P 500 fell a further 15% over the next 4 months, followed by a brief 19% rally over 2 months, followed by another 19% drop over the next 2 months
March 19, 2020: the market fell 11% over the next few days marking the Covid bottom
November 14, 2018: the S&P 500 fell a further 14% over the next month and a half
April 13, 2018: the market fell 3% over the next 3 weeks
February 1, 2016: the S&P 500 fell another 7% over the next two weeks
Is this a sign of a stronger move to the downside?
The S&P 500 is 50 day Moving Average is now below the 100 day Moving Average
byu/logicalnutty instocks
Posted by logicalnutty
14 Comments
Where were we a year later after each of these signals?
Actually, since I’m bored and sitting here at a PC, I’ll do the charting:
02/01/16-02/01/17: 20% total return on SPY
4/13/18-4/13/19: almost 12%
11/14/18-11/14/19: almost 17%
03/19/20-03/19/21: 66%
02/24/22-02/24/23: -6%
10/27/23-10/27/24: 43%
03/19/25-03/19/26: 18%
85% chance to beat the SPY average over the next year by buying the “omg shit’s hitting the fan” signal.
Aren’t those lagging indicators though? Stocks aren’t dropping because the 50 day moving average is below the 100.
The 50 day moving average is below the 100 because stocks are dropping.
So get ready to buy in 2-4 weeks
War, high oil, over leveraged carry and basis trades, un yielding inflation, private credit cracks, AI gluttony, insane P/E ratios, galactic moron at the helm are signs of a downtrend, this is just confirmation… it accelerates from here.
So, how long should we wait to buy the dip?
historically this crossover has never been a “buy the dip” signal on the first touch.. every single instance on that list saw more downside before any real recovery.
The algos are going to figure trump out and sell everything no matter what he says haha they are probably tired of the volatility too 🤣
Great time to buy!
Not just that…the housing market is about to collapse in USA. I have bunch of realtor friends and they are all saying so.
Then AI is causing major layoffs. Congress can’t stop inflation which is getting worse each day. When middle class goes on paycheck to paycheck living, u know shit is about to hit the fan.
And Trump took a gamble with Iran………….now he’s losing the upper hand and with midterms looming, he’s getting into desperation mode (thats why he’s got “boots on the ground” awaiting his orders).
Then outside the oil crisis, no one is buying big ass trucks/SUV’s anymore. I have a lease coming up and looking at luxury brands and dealers are empty on a saturday morning. They have like 10 people all dressed up and only handful of customers and finance booth are empty. However, u can negotiate good deals if u don’t care for gas gusslers.
All in all, nothing looks good for America right now and the Iran war was yet another dagger right in the heart.
Gee it’s almost like the market enters regular correction periods or bad things happen. Who would have thought.
OMG this is a shitshow
Tough to leave VOO at 583 on the table so I bought a smidge. Just a smidge. Waiting.
Just sold, was up 50k for the year now 25k. Will probably regret it but I feel like this war isn’t going to end anytime too soon
The scenario is closest to 2022, the russia invasion of Ukraine.
Expect further turmoil as long as thr strait of Hormuz is restricted and oil prices stay high.
Usa wanted a strong usa dollar through oil markets.
You got it.