Shorted USO at $124. If I'm understanding this right it holds the near month contract so it's really a pure bet that oil prices will go down at some point in the future, which it's hard to believe oil will not be lower, say, 1 year or 2 years out. I can hold through USO going to $200. Yeehaw!!
Posted by JuanPabloElTres
11 Comments
Shorted USO too early at $90. Now regretting pretty bad. 📈
What’s the cost to borrow?
surely this is troll post. nobody is this dumb even on this sub
I would argue with you but I am really not sure about how the price of the underlying USO tracks the price of oil or the profits of american oil companies. See recent posts from u/BFLO-retail who has a good understanding of this and is making good plays with weeklies. I just don’t know enough that I would be willing to bet long term against oil going up. They just started mining the strait and even if production turns back on tomorrow it will take time. Asian emergency supplies are dwindling and they will start being willing to pay more and more which will drive the price up. Its just hard to time the top right now but I don’t think that this is it.
USO at 124 seems pretty high but oil’s been wild lately so who knows where this thing goes
Positions or ban
You have to worry about a potential energy deficit if 20% of the oil infrastructure just goes away.
Your thesis is oil will go to $200 then plummet? It might be better to wait until oil hits that $200 mark before you pile in.
But who knows, maybe a Tweet will bomb USO on Monday. Cash a profit and get out.
Fake unless positions are posted
Houthis just joined the war. I have a hard time understanding how oil will go down given the damaged infrastructure which will take years to build up again. Maybe in a few months it decreases but it still wont be pre-war levels
Also basis risk for USO / options will increase given volatility
The world runs on oil, this is a very risky bet