Goldman Sachs scenarios.

• Spike to $120 → crashes back to $80 10 weeks, no infrastructure damage
• Spike to $140 → stays at $95+ 10 weeks of disruption WITH production scarring
• Spike to $160 → NEVER comes back down below $100

Brent is at $114 with price suppression via the release of the strategic petroleum reserves and disinfo campaign on negotiations. I think without the price suppression we'd already have spiked 140 on Brent.

Based on what I can see, the Israelis are focusing only on MRBM sites, energy infrastructure and a war of assassination. It seems futile. The US is focusing on MRBM sites and military and civilian infrastructure. There seems to be limited or no effort by either state to interdict SRBMs and drones. And those are what Iran can use to climb the escalation ladder and torch all the pipelines and energy hubs in the region.

Wildcard? Weather, Yemen joining the conflict, Russian Spring offensive, 3rd order effect. Severe weather disruption has degraded defenses in Persian Gulf. Yemen has the ability interdict traffic thru the Red Sea. Ukraine has been second fiddled by the War on Iran. Interceptors and US intel resources might soon be rerouted away from Kiev leaving it at the mercy of a recapitalized Russian offensive. And fuel shortages could destabilize previously stable situations all across the globe. SE Asia, Latin America, Africa. WW3 vibes.

I think we are in scenario 2 right now, but on the cliff's edge of scenario 3. It won't take much to take the global economy over that ledge. And given the delusional statements coming out of the Trump administration there may be even worse scenario 4 if US troops are sponged up into land war in Asia. And a scenario 5 if 3rd order effects start to dominate.