I know nobody got a crystal ball and knows where it will go with Bitcoin. But why wouldn’t it slowly keep dropping over the years and kinda bleed out/become obsolete ? I love the idea of it becoming early retirement but what if we are totally wrong? Nobody knows ofc but what makes you guys so sure you keep putting money in you might need some day?
(Again, I know nobody really knows just curious about perspective from the other side)
Posted by mitchell2820
6 Comments
No one knows, but I just think the asymmetry is worth it.
If BTC goes to zero I lose whatever I DCA’d: money I specifically set aside as money I won’t need for living. If BTC does what it’s done every cycle for 15 years, that same money 10x’s or more.
That risk/reward makes sense to me. The “bleed out” scenario would require something to actually replace it, and after 15 years, nothing has.
Every cycle people call it dead, and every cycle it comes back higher. Could this time be different? Sure. But I’m not betting my life on it, I’m betting a fixed weekly amount I genuinely don’t miss.
That’s the key: only DCA what you’d be okay lighting on fire.
I just cannot fathom your scenario, because if that happens, I will just buy all the bitcoin that I can (through DCA), and I will not be the only one. Bitcoin has no ceiling because fiat has no floor.
Bitcoin is money
The US Dollar is backed by a government that is nearly $40 trillion in debt and there’s nothing that indicates spending will get under control in the near future. I fear holding onto my fiat more than I fear holding onto BTC. Sure, I could be wrong – but the more people that get tired of losing their savings to inflation, the more attractive BTC looks…
There’s only ever going to be 21 million Bitcoin. We’ve already mined over 20 million, and the final ~1 million will take roughly the next 100 years to be issued.
That fixed supply is what gives people conviction, it’s not about being 100% sure, it’s about stacking an asset where supply can’t be inflated away over time.
And to be fair, we’re in a bear market now, this is exactly when conviction feels hardest. I’ve been through this before… I left, came back at the next ATH, and completely missed the accumulation phase.
Just don’t make the same mistake and regret it later.
same strategy for stocks, DCA if you think the asset will appreciate in value over a long horizon