Those short the market, or sitting on cash, are expecting the war to carry on and the market to keep melting down. Meanwhile, those invested expect a ceasefire to emerge before long. True objectivity is hard to achieve when you have something valuable at stake.
With this in mind take a minute to think if your Iran war analysis is truly impartial or are you trying to rationalize your market posture?
Posted by Artistic_Item_5710
8 Comments
It will be violent both ways imo. Down and up. If you can time it right you’ll make $$.. but its just a casino
My strategy was to go cash so I wouldn’t take a massive dip, I’m fine with a year of gains being gone for my public investments so that’s what I did.
Best case it goes back slightly higher than before, worst case it dips to fuckland.
So why cash? If the economy truly gets fucked then I’ll buy real estate and the leftover I’ll invest in whatever cratered the most that’s not AI related. People are overextended to fuck and retirement is expensive.
If I had more capital I’d go for a piece of the asian market once they get hard fucked on the energy front.
We were running ATH on vibes for a while, I’m betting on a bit of puke cleanup before the party gets going again.
My Iran war analysis is that no one knows shit about fuck so I’m buying diversified ETFs every paycheck.
This is why I stopped having a “market posture” at all. I DCA the same amount every week regardless of what’s happening: war, no war, crash, rally.
I don’t need a thesis on Iran to justify my next buy because the buy was happening anyway. The moment you take a directional position, you lose objectivity. The only way to win this game is to not play it.
I started going long oil in January, and picked up a lot more when Iran was looking likely. As it became clear the US hadn’t planned this operation well at all, and that Iran was proving more resilient than I expected, my expectations for the market as a whole became a lot more grim. I’ve got a lot of contacts in oil and gas, some who will be very damaged by high oil prices. The only argument for oil prices stabilizing near term is if Trump tacos, and realistically that doesn’t actually help real prices for months. I’m nervous but still confident in my thesis, depending on Trump’s ability to manipulate I will be taking some profits this week on either Monday or Wednesday
As a professional trader, I’ve learned that market narratives often follow positions, not facts. Those shorting see the war dragging on, those invested hope for a ceasefire. True objectivity is rare when your money’s on the line always check if your analysis is reality or justification.
When you’re this deep in a hole, you can get back in on confirmed strength.
Here’s a take: if you’re not near retirement what does it even matter? If you’re a trader then I’m sure it’s maximum stress, maybe become a long term investor