Everyone’s focused on BTC technicals. The macro setup is far more important right now.

Markets just priced a 33% probability of a Fed rate hike before January 2027. Rate cut odds for all of 2025: zero. That's not a soft landing — that's a Fed still fighting inflation from a global energy shock.

Historically, rate hike environments compress risk assets hard. Crypto doesn't get a pass. Equities take the first hit, and $BTC follows.

But here's the wrinkle: Jerome Powell leaves in May. Trump has been explicit — he wants aggressive cuts the moment his chosen successor takes the chair. If the incoming Fed chair aligns with White House policy, the macro picture flips quickly.

So you have two credible futures colliding: tight policy from the current Fed vs. a politically-driven easing cycle starting Q3.

The question isn't whether BTC goes up or down — it's which macro scenario lands first. Which outcome are you actually positioned for?