Ever notice how every time there’s a “Middle East disruption” or “Hormuz crisis,” oil prices jump 20–40%? Yet if you look at the actual global supply, the physical loss is tiny, usually less than 10%.
Here’s the catch: media, analysts, and even politicians constantly report numbers like “20% of oil disrupted at Hormuz” without clarifying that’s just a regional flow, not global supply. The omission of scale is deliberate, it looks like a crisis when in reality the world still has enough oil.
This isn’t just exaggeration, it’s functional fraud. By being vague, the system extracts massive profits from fear: traders, refiners, and producers all cash in while consumers pay inflated prices. The facts exist, but the context is intentionally hidden.
We technically aren’t running out of oil, yet prices spike because everyone is scared by incomplete information. If proportional risk reporting were mandatory, most of these “crisis” profits would vanish.
The system is rigged, and it’s built on omission, fear, and repeated narrative manipulation. Fraud? Morally, yes. Legally? Hard to prove, but it’s happening right in front of us.
Oil price spikes aren’t about supply, they’re a system of fear-driven fraud
byu/FaithlessnessFar6431 inenergy
Posted by FaithlessnessFar6431
11 Comments
“Its not about supply” and only “regional flow” is certainly a take
So you don’t know anything about oil and gas, got it.
I think your post is fraud since you have never bothered to look at a map of where oil exports coming out of Hormuz go to
Ai
You forgot to mention the global corruption. The whole system is setup to have to ship crude half way around the world to refine it into fuel. Look into who owns the shipping companies and their relationship with those that own the oil companies.
OP also doesn’t know anything about economics. A 10% decrease in supply does not correspond to a 10% increase in price.
You might want to learn, I dunno, anything before posting.
For example, the amount of oil flowing through Hormuz is around 20 million barrels a day and the amount of oil the world uses is about 100 million barrels a day. So it’s not a regional thing, people are talking about world supply.
This is the classic “I have no idea how a thing works therefore it must be fraud.”
See also: flat Earthers, anti-vaxxers, etc., etc.
Time to take a basic economics class. The phrase you’re looking for is “demand elasticity.”
A 20% loss of supply does not mean a 20% increase in price. Instead, imagine you show up at the gas station to buy $50 worth of gas and nine other cars are there: the gas station owner has enough gas for eight of you. How much are you willing to pay to *not* be one of the two people who can’t go to work this week? A lot more than $10 I bet.
If the world is running on 100 million barrels per day with a slight ability for oversupply of 3 mpd, a 20 mpd supply destruction leaves 17 mbd of oil that people(the “economy”) were expecting to rely on.
Oil is a global market. Someone in China/USA/Brazil/etc. can purchase oil from anywhere if they’re willing to pay. This means the remaining oil is now being competed for and the highest bidder will win.
There will also need to be demand destruction for whatever oil isn’t there. Businesses failing or people being unable to take trips for fun. The poorer countries will most likely lose the most.
Or…hear me out….its a commodity that people trade on arbitrage and prices are based on supply and demand…