Full breakdown on the Hormuz oil shock and downstream effects (diesel spike, trucking costs, stagflation risk, etc.)
SeesawBeautiful5839 on
We are already in recession. From here things will only become worse. The question is where the bottom is and how fast we reach it.
Shinjukin on
More like 30% chance of a depression, recession is already guaranteed.
Worst case scenario looks something like:
* $150 oil creates incredible stagflation, rate hikes and stock market losses.
* Private credit which is already in a precarious position, shits the bed due to the economic situation
* stock market falls further
* 80% of US citizens are already broke while the top 10% who make up 50% of consumer spending stop spending as their money comes largely from assets like stocks that have already collapsed
* Stock market falls further
* The AI spending stops as most of it is done through debt
* Government has to borrow a further $10 trillion to stabaslise the economy and fight another war in the Middle East
* Sovereign debt crisis e.g. Greece 2011 with now $50 trillion debt to $30 trillion GDP and high interest rates.
3 Comments
Full breakdown on the Hormuz oil shock and downstream effects (diesel spike, trucking costs, stagflation risk, etc.)
We are already in recession. From here things will only become worse. The question is where the bottom is and how fast we reach it.
More like 30% chance of a depression, recession is already guaranteed.
Worst case scenario looks something like:
* $150 oil creates incredible stagflation, rate hikes and stock market losses.
* Private credit which is already in a precarious position, shits the bed due to the economic situation
* stock market falls further
* 80% of US citizens are already broke while the top 10% who make up 50% of consumer spending stop spending as their money comes largely from assets like stocks that have already collapsed
* Stock market falls further
* The AI spending stops as most of it is done through debt
* Government has to borrow a further $10 trillion to stabaslise the economy and fight another war in the Middle East
* Sovereign debt crisis e.g. Greece 2011 with now $50 trillion debt to $30 trillion GDP and high interest rates.