/ weekend need to know

Houthis have re-entered the conflict with missile strikes on Israel, describing it as an ongoing campaign. Their return puts Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the primary Hormuz workaround now running at 7mn bpd, directly at risk.
Iran's Hormuz tollbooth is widening but volumes remain at a trickle. Tehran is extracting bilateral deals country by country – Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia in progress. The first listed company cargo transited this weekend: 442,000 barrels of Saudi crude bound for Karachi.
US ground operations in Iran now being actively planned by the Pentagon, per WSJ. The USS Tripoli arrived this weekend with 3,500 Marines and amphibious assault assets. A second MEU is inbound. The Ford has withdrawn to Croatia for repairs; CBS reports the George H.W. Bush may deploy as replacement
Diplomacy is stalling. Pakistan hosted a four-nation de-escalation meeting in Islamabad – without US or Iranian representatives present. Iran's parliament speaker publicly accused Washington of secretly planning a ground invasion.
Ukraine ramping up energy strikes. Ust-Luga struck twice in a week, Kirishi and Yaroslavl refineries both damaged. Russian attempts to capatalise on increased prices is under threat.

[one to watch] – Trump’s and his administation have been well telegraphed as using de-escalatory comments to keep oil under pressure since the Iran conflict kicked off- Friday highlighted the market is getting jaded with this tactic and skepticism will likley remain around attempts at positive messaging this week. 48-hour to 5 day to 10 day pause a key case in point as TACO calls mount.

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/summary

The Strait of Hormuz crisis entered a new phase this weekend as Iran's bilateral passage deals multiplied while the physical flow through the strait remained a fraction of normal and Houthis entered the chat. More than 350 vessels – around 200 of them tankers – remain stranded awaiting Iranian permits, even as Tehran extracts diplomatic concessions country by country. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has hit 7 million barrels per day as the primary workaround, but a backlog is already building at Yanbu – and Houthi re-entry into the conflict now puts that alternative under direct threat.

The military picture progressed considerably over the weekend. The USS Tripoli arrived with 3,500 Marines trained in amphibious operations, a second MEU is inbound, and the WSJ reported the Pentagon is preparing plans for weeks of ground operations inside Iran. The USS Gerald R. Ford has withdrawn to Croatia for repairs, temporarily reducing carrier-based strike capacity. None of this is consistent with a conflict nearing resolution, and the arrival of ground-capable assets is precisely the escalation Iran has warned would trigger broader retaliation against energy infrastructure.

Pakistan convened a four-nation foreign ministers' meeting in Islamabad with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt – but no American or Iranian representatives present. Iran's parliament speaker publicly accused Washington of secretly planning a ground invasion while sending diplomatic signals. Tehran has rejected the US 15-point plan and countered with its own five-point framework. Both sides are talking, but the gap between their positions remains wide.

Ukrainian strikes have now hit Ust-Luga twice in a week, damaged the Kirishi and Yaroslavl refineries, and Reuters reported cumulative disruption to around 40% of Russian export capacity. Moscow is reintroducing a gasoline export ban from April 1 as domestic supply tightens. Russian crude has moved from deep discount to near-parity on the back of the Iran crisis, and Ukraine is systematically targeting the infrastructure needed to capitalise on it.