I'm currently drafting a risk model for an energy logistics firm and need to de-risk my assumptions about short-term maritime chokepoints. While I have the macro data, the immediate cascading effects on insurance premiums and regional tanker rerouting seem unpredictable.
And here is what I’m curious about:
– Would a seven-day closure of the Strait of Hormuz trigger an immediate global oil price spike, or would strategic reserves stabilize the first 48 hours?
– How fast would insurance P&I clubs declare "force majeure" for vessels already in transit?
– Are there any realistic bypass pipelines that could actually handle the diverted volume on such short notice?
– What happens to the LNG supply chain specifically, given its stricter delivery windows?
What would actually happen if the Strait of Hormuz got blocked for a week?
byu/Sad_Safe8810 inAskEconomics
Posted by Sad_Safe8810