Today’s move was strong, no doubt. But honestly this feels more like positioning + oversold bounce than anything structural.
We’ve been getting hit all month, sentiment was washed, and now any hint of easing in the Middle East = everything rips. Classic.
Big picture hasn’t changed much IMO:
oil still a problem
inflation still sticky
Fed not cutting anytime soon
That combo doesn’t exactly scream “new bull run.”
I’m not chasing here. Added a bit to stuff I already like, but still holding cash.
If this turns into a multi-day follow-through, I’ll respect it.
If not, this was just another squeeze.
Curious if people are buying this or just trading it.
Feels like a relief rally… not convinced it’s the bottom
byu/Sufficient-Juice2978 instocks
Posted by Sufficient-Juice2978
41 Comments
Quite literally, a three second glance at the spy chart shows it’s just set up the lower high. Next stop is the lower low.
Could be a relief rally but also trying to time a bottom is difficult
We are going to ATHs by end of May
I agree but also the market doesn’t appear to be controlled by reason. Holding cash looks bad today but until something tangible substantially changes, I’m betting it’ll go down again, probably even further than the recent low
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I wish I had cash on hand atm. I sold my AI stocks at the peak and moved it all into VOO to hedge my bets. I don’t really think anyone know what will happen, but I will say, just like covid the US is insulated for a period of time before the OH FUCK moment happens. We either go to $5/gal all summer or we somehow slower return to normal, but I see that being slim to none. Buy some MSFT and chill because this party is a Diddy party and we’re all getting fucked
It’s not the bottom
Reminds me of Tuesday and Wednesday last week, followed by the Thursday Friday sell off. All depends on how the war evolves in the coming days
Part of me wonders if Iran just decided to play trumps game – send out a tweet to manipulate markets. As far as I’m aware – Iran has stated that they are not in negotiations with the US (if someone has a source / link that’d be appreciated).
It’s an interesting market we’re in – a single tweet can shred / create over a trillion in value. The US admin is known to be profitting from this – perhaps iran figured they’d do the same.
Very tinfoil hat
There’s positive divergences everywhere. VIX making a lower high, SPX making a lower low. Stocks above their key moving averages are higher > while SPX making new lows. These are long-term bottoms. Today you have a reversal bar on institutional volume. It’s likely the bottom. Price drives narrative.. not the other way around.
Pump n dump
It doesn’t matter. Trump will tweet, and Bessent will lie, and there is nothing we can do to stop them from manipulating the markets. I thought we learned our lesson from last year.
thank you captain obvious. why is this sub so much dumber than wallstbets
Don’t forget midterms
It’s nowhere near the bottom. Watch the troop movements, not what he says! His word is meaningless.
That’s literally why people can’t time bottoms, because everyone thinks it isn’t, but it might be….
Yeah it does feel like a relief rally more than anything real. Market drops hard, sentiment gets washed out, then any bit of “less bad” news and everything bounces. Happens every time. People start convincing themselves it’s the bottom when nothing has actually changed.
I’ve learned it’s not even worth trying to call it anymore. If you’re long term, you just keep buying through it. If you’re short term, you’re basically gambling on headlines.
I focus on staying consistent and not getting pulled into every move. I write about this from a normal income perspective, simple stuff that actually works, it’s on my profile if you want more.
Nothing has happened to confirm anywhere near the bottom we’re still shedding jobs and oil still isn’t moving lol.
Dead…Cat…Bounce…
I am completely in a Sell the Rip mentality rather than Buy the Dip. We need a correction and something will cause it. I am thinking a poorly thoughtout war in the ME and rising inflation fueled by that war along with a currently unknown Minsky Moment may be the catalyst to end this seemingly forever Bull Market. The problem with a Sell the Rip mentality is everything I have is running over 200% and some over 300% of basis, so Sell the Rip is expensive. I even have a situation in my IRA where any sales of my largest positions cause income taxes and in an IRA those income taxes hit 37% with very modest gains. So I have been doing it selectively and slowly each January for the past few years. So I am limiting myself to selling 10% of my equity positions each year due to tax costs.
gay ber i didn’t read anything you saud
When sentiment is hugely negative like this, it’s probably close to the bottom imo
I think the 10 year yield started to drop a couple days ago because the bond market is pricing a bigger recession. quantitative equity trading systems saw this and pumped equities (rates down is good right?). plus everyone wanted a nice mark on their March 31 month-end, quarter-end. so most trading biased to longs.
the best outcome politically and economically now is Trump just walks away, China/Pakistan/India negotiate a re-opening of the straight for Asia’s sake. The US troop movements are worrying though. Trump might do something really really stupid.
It might not be the bottom but it’s definitely not a relief rally
This post looks like it was written by Claude Opus 4.6 with the sentence structure and saying things like “something = XYZ. Classic”
“This combo doesn’t exactly scream ‘new bull run’” also very Claude-esque, then the ending asking audience for their opinion.
And on top of all that, Trump saying the war will be ending in “two weeks” means the war isn’t likely to end any time soon either.
Same! I used today to thin out some positions & move into cash / foreign markets / emerging markets, etc.
Payroll number surprises by 90,000+. Inflation going nowhere / no answer to housing inventory shortage / natl debt pushing $40 trillion / Iran will not go down quietly… CREDIT CARD CARRYOVER HIGHEST SINCE 2009… market still near all time highs?? I could go on.
Today is a head-fake.
Not reading all that.
Calls.
I know nothing. I closed 3 of my 5 hedge positions this morning, but I think there’s more downside coming.
Plenty of +3% + days in the last 3 bear markets.
Got this from Chat GPT obviously
2008 Bear Market (Global Financial Crisis)
• Duration: ~1 year
• +3% up days: ~15–20
• Frequency: Very clustered, especially during peak panic (often 1 every 1–2 weeks)
⸻
• 2020 Bear Market (COVID crash)
• Duration: ~1–2 months (very compressed)
• +3% up days: ~9
• Frequency: Extremely dense (sometimes multiple per week)
⸻
• 2022 Bear Market (rate-driven slowdown)
• Duration: ~1 year
• +3% up days: ~9–12
• Frequency: Moderate and more spread out (about 1–2 per month)
Why not? You’re not convinced that the war in Iran is over? Didn’t Trump insist so every day for over a month?
It’s a dead cat bounce. Mark it, dude. This isn’t Nam, Smokey, there are rules.
The volume of the move cannot be overlooked.
If there is legitimate progress on talks to end the conflict, the market got what it wanted and the bottom may very well be in.
Doesn’t mean it will be straight up, of course, but now we have a chance to make a higher low from yesterday and resume a daily uptrend for the first time in weeks.
it’s the bottom. So glad i loaded yesterday!
Time the bottom perfectly… I dare you.
Oil is still over $100 a barrel. Literally nothing has changed the market is just copium.
Tldr OP doesn’t like the “vibes”
bull trap
I’m sure plenty of red still to come but I’ll never argue with a 2% green day, esp during a shitshow
It’s a trump pump and dump.
Give me 8-10 trading days consecutively, not as crazy as today, but steady increases (150-200 DOW, 100-150 NASDAQ) and then I’ll jump back in. Missing a few up days is not a big deal.