There has been a noticeable decoupling of consumer confidence and consumer spending, especially since COVID. It’s really not predictive of the economy anymore. Heck, we were talking about this [in 2004.](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/0895330041371222)
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There has been a noticeable decoupling of consumer confidence and consumer spending, especially since COVID. It’s really not predictive of the economy anymore. Heck, we were talking about this [in 2004.](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/0895330041371222)
This is a [good Fed piece about it.](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/tracking-consumer-sentiment-versus-how-consumers-are-doing-based-on-verified-retail-purchases-20250424.html). An excerpt:
“Taken together, we show that what consumers have been saying differs from what they have been doing during the post-pandemic period…”