Hi everyone,
Nasdaq gained 3,6% in one day. Today, the futurs are gaining 1%. Apparently, if I read the news, investors have got optimistic about the end of war, because Trump said the war is ended in two or three weeks (or more if you listen to Hegseth). Moreover, Iran said they are ready to end the war …
But I've some doubt:
– Since the begining of the war in Iran, Trump's said the war is ended in 2 or 3 weeks. The war began one month ago…
– Iran said they are ready to end the war, but they have always said that. They made a list of 5 fundamental points, and when I read that, i'm not sure Trump will accept it.
– A new US big ship has just come to middle east, ready to attack …
– 5000 US soldiers are waiting for the invasion
– Hegseth is still claiming he wants to invade Iran and "his" soldiers want that …
– the strait of Hormuz is still closed and Iran claims again it's still close for US/Israel and their allies
– The strait of Bab el Mandeb is under the threat of Houstis, allies of Iran. So even if you want to change the way of ship, you're f:cked
– A big part of capacity of oil and gas production are still destroyed and need some months or year to be available.
– Some countries will suffer of a shortage of oil and maybe gas at the end of April, if the strait is still close.
– European countries got a double inflation in Marsh (France past from 0,9 to 1,7%) and this is just the begining, because the oil and gas price doesn't affect the final product.
– In US, like tariff, there is no inflation rise, the magic of USA I guess …
Seriously, why people are buying massively ? they got their salary of marsh and want to buy the dip ? because all the week end, I read lot of influencer and some analyst saying this is the dip and you have to buy..
We got the same rebound of April 9th but there is no news ?!
byu/SidonyD instocks
Posted by SidonyD
22 Comments
Why try to time this? No one knows on any given day how the market will move. But we know that time in > timing.
Just reverse Reddit lol. I did the same thing last April. Buy when the VIX is 30+, and in the long run you will be okay. Markets are forward looking. Good luck out there, and just stay invested no matter what if you have a long timeframe.
Yeah, all the announcements here are designed to confuse, Im 100% sure negotiations are taking place. But by admitting that and letting the stock market recover Iran loses leverage. So they keep denying it.
On the other hand, the US might actually be ready to attack, the fact that Trump is seen as crazy, immature and unpredictable is exactly what keeps everyone (includingIran) on their toes. Troops keep arriving.
In the end, both parties want to have as many cards to play and as many threats as possible DURING NEGOTIATIONS.
The escalations will abruptly come to an end when a deal is reached, or there is no deal and we have a war. Right now everyone is holding their breath.
what was the news last time? “Now is a good time to buy”?
1. stupid war never should have started ! now iran has more leverage.
2. No matter what us does, oil wont come back to previous level and lont term regular people will suffer way more; everything will go up very soon; groceris, housing, bills, clothings etc.
3. Fed will likely print more money adn inflation inevitable goes up and job market will suffer. USD will cont loose value way more than gov projected
4. No idea how when but ai already destroyed more and feels they wont do what people hope.
5. private credit sector is showing more and more stress signs and could potentially cause another mini crash.
6. trump and co showed way way worse attitude and alarmed whole glode that US cannot be trusted ; stupid unilateral tariffs, fees, backstab wars/killings/sanctions etc.
Elevated VIX, extreme fear sentiment, oversold RSI and good valuations relative to guidance, estimated EPS growth and future cash flows makes me buy A LOT currently (as I did during last spring).
I can’t factor in what Trump do or not do anymore. I listen to what the CEOs are saying and looking at the fundamentals and estimates for the company going forward. I believe we will reach new ATH within a year so I keep buying stocks at attractive valuations.
I honestly think it’s manipulated. Iran made it clear they’re not ending this unless it’s on their terms to protect future security. They just pulled out completely from the proliferation agreement and are now hellbent on building the nuke. I’m sure the war will be over soon though…
Iran said there are no negotiations tho, its just market manipulation
Just a bull trap. We know Trump. No one can account on his words. Tomorrow he can say something that is completely different or even contradictory with what he says today. Moreover, the most problem with the world economy is not the war itself, but the closing of the Straits Hormuz, which is not part of ending the war, according to Trump.
“Iran wants to end the war” those were the news and semis pumped, Sandisk 10% and counting.
Oil already recovered from the down today too
1. This is a short squeeze compounded by end of quarter mutual fund restructuring. Yesterdays pump forced/is forcing alot of shorts to cover, and that volume is inflated by all the mutual funds who need to reallocate today 3/31 last day of the quarter.
2. There’s a big cache of wallstreet money sitting on the sidelines waiting for the spaceX IPO, which is rumored to begin private issues this week. This pump is going to turn into a big liquidity sweep for those funds.
3. Yesterday was a massive over reaction. Literally while trump was tweeting the war is almost over and the threat to the straight has been neutralized, an Iranian drone struck an oil tanker parked off the coast of Dubai, and at 2 AM this morning, multiple drones hit oil reserves in Kuwait airport and a cruise missile hit Aqua 1 a massive oil tanker in Qatar. Trump threatening to leave NATO this AM. Yesterday he told europe to go open the straight themselves. Somehow all of this reality got lost in the headlines yesterday because Iran let 2 Chinese tankers pass through the straight unharmed. Iran has also issued its own ultimatum and deadline which expires today at 10:30AM (8pm tehran time). If US and Israel dont retreat, Iran says they will start targeting apple, google, nvda, meta, and tsla datacenters in the gulf coast. The market focused on 2 chinese vessels passing through the straight yesterday and have priced in a de-escalation, when in reality things are escalating quickly. We’ll see what happens today. My money is staying parked in GLDM. If I miss the bottom, so be it. Jumping in now is too risky for my taste.
I think I will buy short term puts. And after that short term calls. The market is acting without logic
>but there is no news ?!
👇
>Apparently, if I read the news, investors have got optimistic about the end of war, because Trump said the war is ended in two or three weeks (or more if you listen to Hegseth). Moreover, Iran said they are ready to end the war …
???
Bear markets often are where the most violent rips occur, I wouldn’t be drawing conclusions off just one day.
market doesn’t care about fundamentals when algos and retail are just buying every dip on autopilot.. sentiment is the trade right now, not the news
If you try to find specific reasons for a daily swing you are wasting your time
April 9 2025 weas a 10.5% gain. Yesterday was nothing like it. Yesterday would’ve needed to 2.5x the return to be comparable.
>In US, like tariff, there is no inflation rise, the magic of USA I guess …
Only a person who doesn’t shop, does not go out or does not live the the US makes a statement like that.
The narrative shifted and market priced it in
The algos have been overfitting ever since Trump got elected. At this point, even the date is a variable that affects the price.
The administration publicly obfuscates its strategies for all sorts of reasons.
The war appears far from over, even if indeed the battle goes into intermission shortly.
Additionally, the US (and world at large) is in a very vulnerable place right now. There’s lots more about to come down the pipe line. This recent dip was nothing. Good times are not coming for a while, guys. At least a couple of years, in my opinion.
Recent market reactions could be a combination of investors with special interests trying to manipulate public perception to favor their upcoming quarterly reports, as well as reintroduce optimism into sentiment. If I had to guess, I don’t anticipate it will last long.
Hold on tight and keep building cash reserves for opportunity.