As we've seen with corrections and bear markets over the past few years, many posters brag about forecasting a drop – due to geopolitical issues, Fed moves, elections, weather patterns, etc.
However, they almost never forecast the beginning of the recovery or the bounce-back. By the time they buy back into the market, it's already higher than when they sold off. At first they cross their fingers and call it a "dead cat bounce." Then when the market keeps rising and they quietly buy back in at a higher cost basis.
For that reason, it's totally useless to get the market drop right if you can't similarly forecast the next rise. Almost no one can get both right, as we inevitably impose our biases/political views/arrogance/ideology/psychological state-of-mind on our market outlooks.
Solution is buy-and-hold/tune out the noise, or a disciplined rebalancing approach where you buy/sell every time the market rises or falls by predetermined %.
No One is Right Twice: The Problem With Market Timing
byu/Afraid_College8493 instocks
Posted by Afraid_College8493
11 Comments
hey now, don’t forget burry predicted 38 of the last 2 bear markets
For average returns yes
the clock.
a broken clock is right twice.
every day.
I am convinced the pump of the last few days is just a ruse and Trump is about to do Something Very Stupid™ once more
Long term > Short term
(Some old rich white guy)
I pulled out of an index fund when the S & P was at 6600. Was feeling great after the dip, but now it’s reversed course and now I’m back where I started.
Did some calculations on my net worth, and I am essentially 50/50 now on stocks/retirement and cash/bonds.
I think this is a good place to be in the current moment. I feel like a lot of times, people get shamed for pulling out, and repeat the same cliche that “time in the market > timing the market.”
But honestly, it’s ok. Risk preference is different for everyone, and a lot of people are overly concerned about capturing upside. Sometimes, the play is just to wait it out and preserve your wealth.
“I’m gonna cum”
I sold end 2021 and bought tech back 50 cent on the dollar. Did the same 2025 before tariffs (30% discount) and once again end 2025. Its quite easy to time the market if you are in a good tax bracket.
Only reasonn people say is you cant time the market is because they need to pay 20/30% profit tax. Other countries without this can easily swing trade any 20/30% decline.
You cant because of shit tax system. Learn the difference.
Everyone just keeps repeating the same doomerism and/or 5 dusty stocks they’re trying to pump
Notice no one was posting about the opportunity to buy memory stocks a year ago, before their 1000% pump, even though ChatGPT was already a couple of years old everyone was just recommending NVDA to infinity
Now everyone is saying they’re a great buy, **after** they’re up 1000%
Macro usually matters through expectations more than the print alone. No position, but I would watch how yields and forward guidance are moving with this.
Yup- they say that the biggest market gains are on a few days a year typical right after big drops and when sentiment is lowest. Most will miss those because they were waiting for the market to go lower and refuse to buy back in right after those days because they are convinced it’s a fake bounce. That said, who knows, we could dump 7% by the end of next week.