~Nine days ago I posted that every CEO was about to say "unexpected headwinds" 47 times this earnings season. 1.5M views. 8.5K upvotes. The thesis was simple: supply chains are cooked, nothing is priced in, and put holders are about to eat.
Some galaxy brain in the comments decided to post "this aged like fucking milk" roughly six hours before oil started ripping like it just discovered pre-workout and SPY started bleeding out on geopolitical escalation in the Gulf.
This man watched shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz become a live fire exercise and decided THAT was the moment to tell me my bear thesis was wrong. He didn't even wait for the earnings calls. He speedran being wrong so fast he lapped himself.
Let me update the translations from the original post since we have new data:
"Unexpected headwinds" translation: we are being bombed
"Cautiously optimistic" translation: our shipping containers are floating somewhere in the Gulf of Oman
"Temporary disruption" translation: the disruption has its own aircraft carrier
"We remain focused on execution" translation: so does the Pentagon
To the guy who said this aged like milk: milk expires in two weeks. Your portfolio expired in two days. The difference between us is I read a map and you read the vibes. The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil transit and you thought puts were regarded.
This is not financial advice. This is a victory lap in a flaming building. We are all going to die but at least my options are printing.
Positions: SPY puts, XLE calls, emotional damage (compounding daily)
SPY Is down 1.12% as of 6am pre market. Buy the dip, or ride the elevator down?
Regard said my bear thesis aged like milk. Oil ripped 8% that night.
byu/MilesDelta inwallstreetbets
Posted by MilesDelta
10 Comments
F
Too many investors are regards. This oil shock is worse than the 1970s and Russia sanctions combined. Add to that the Houthis potentially shutting down another strait and the whole world could burn. The problem is the bull run and buy the dip has turned them into the typical Pavlovian dog where they have been conditioned to keep chasing the dip regardless of anything. Not helped by never ending government bail outs whenever they screwed up. The only way markets behave healthy is by flushing out the buy the dip regards and retail investors until they are all bankrupt.
Oil moves like my ex calm one minute, chaos the next. That bear thesis didn’t just age, it curdled instantly.
But you are still down on your spy puts if you opened that a week ago?
I feel like we are in the time of regards. Where you could even state a fact so true that there is no refutation and some regard will look you dead in the face and tell you you’re wrong. How in the fuck you think we got into this mess in the first place?
Volatility is too high for me to grab puts but I wish you luck in watching it all burn.
Dead cat bounce. 7 years of market walking on ever growing stilts are theyre about to fall off
Damn OP hit that guy with the
https://preview.redd.it/4svgedsy5rsg1.jpeg?width=596&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8605c2ad3dcbaf2ecc40f7a983676f2223cc944
How long have you been waiting to drop that “expired like milk” line
WSB is infinite monkey theory. y’all both right and wrong.